Is Gold Truly a Safe-Haven Asset or a Risk Asset? The answer is actually written in history.

It may seem counterintuitive, but before a crisis truly hits, gold often rises first, then falls, and then surges dramatically. Before the 2008 financial collapse, gold prices had already surged over 50%. This is no coincidence—smart money had long sensed the risk.

What have central banks around the world been doing this year? Buying gold like crazy. Data shows that central banks have accumulated 36,000 tons of gold, with foreign exchange reserves in gold soaring to 20%. This allocation ratio hits a new high, indicating what? Gold has officially upgraded to a new hard currency. When expectations of interest rate cuts emerge, gold prices soar—money from stocks and funds floods into it.

But here’s a strange phenomenon: why does gold price plunge when a crisis actually erupts?

The answer is: in panic moments, cash is king. After Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, everyone frantically sold assets to buy dollars for emergency liquidity, causing gold prices to plummet 24% in two weeks. It sounds hopeless, but this isn’t because gold itself is worthless—it’s because the entire market is seeking cash. Keep an eye on the TED spread indicator; once it breaks 0.8, alarm bells should ring.

The real reversal happens after the crisis. Central banks start printing money to rescue the economy, and as money printing accelerates, gold prices rise even more fiercely. From 2008 to now, the Federal Reserve has printed $8.96 trillion, while gold prices soared from $681 to $1920. This is no coincidence—when inflation gets fierce, gold becomes even more attractive.

What does history say? After the 1974 crisis, gold prices surged 725%; after the 2008 crisis, they increased 182%. Every major dip is actually an excellent opportunity to buy the dip.

The current situation is even more complex. The independence of global central banks faces political pressure, dollar volatility intensifies, and the ultimate safe-haven attribute of gold is being reactivated. Central banks around the world are still accumulating gold, with an additional 950 tons expected by 2026. The bottom has already been welded shut.

What’s your view on this round? How high will gold go?