The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) just raised its 2026 oil production forecast to 13.59 million barrels per day, up from the previous estimate of 13.53 million bpd. For 2027, the agency projects output will decline slightly to 13.25 million bpd.

Why this matters for the broader market: crude oil trends directly influence inflation expectations, which is a key driver of interest rate policy and macro risk sentiment. Higher oil supply could moderate energy costs, potentially easing inflation pressures—a scenario that could support riskier assets including crypto. Conversely, any production slowdown in 2027 might reignite energy cost concerns. Traders monitoring macro headwinds should keep these EIA projections on their radar, especially as geopolitical tensions and OPEC decisions continue to shape global energy dynamics.