#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Market Analysis Today: The market is consolidating at a key level, awaiting macro data guidance

Bitcoin price hesitates above $91,000, briefly touching $92,400 before retreating. Market sentiment is at a delicate balance between a potential technical breakout and macroeconomic uncertainty.
On January 13, 2026, the overall cryptocurrency market shows a sideways pattern. As of this morning, Bitcoin has slightly risen to $91,304, while Ethereum has fallen 0.58% to around $3,100. The market is waiting for tonight’s US December CPI data, a key macro indicator that could determine the short-term direction.
Despite overall weakness, technical analysis indicates Bitcoin remains in a potential bullish structure, while Ethereum faces a critical neckline support test.
Market Overview
On January 13, 2026, the crypto market shows divergence. Among major coins, Bitcoin performs relatively stably, while Ethereum faces greater pressure. According to Mitrade’s Financial Breakfast data, as of this morning, Bitcoin has slightly increased to $91,304, Ethereum has decreased 0.58% to around $3,100, BNB has risen slightly by 0.4% to $905, and Ripple (XRP) remains flat at $2.05.
From the liquidation perspective, total market liquidations in the past 24 hours reached $231 million, with longs accounting for $143 million. Bitcoin liquidations are about $72 million, and Ethereum about $46 million. This data indicates significant selling pressure at high levels, especially as leveraged long positions are being liquidated, increasing market volatility.
Bitcoin Special Analysis: Cup and Handle Pattern Awaiting Breakout
Bitcoin is currently forming a cup and handle pattern, a common bullish continuation setup.
Technical analysis shows that after breaking above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on January 10, Bitcoin closed with two consecutive bullish candles. This pattern is similar to the one that triggered nearly a 7% rebound in early January.
The key resistance level for Bitcoin is near $92,400, which corresponds to the breakout point of the cup and handle pattern. If the daily close can stay above this level, it will pave the way toward the next target of $94,870 and activate a technical upside target of about $106,630.
However, Bitcoin faces persistent selling pressure as it attempts to move higher. On-chain data shows that short-term holders (holding 7-30 days) have almost no selling pressure, with activity dropping 95% since January 8. Meanwhile, long-term investors (holding over 155 days) have started re-accumulating since December 26, even as Bitcoin peaked on January 5. The real selling pressure comes from ultra-long-term holders (possibly holding over a year), who distributed about 286,700 BTC on January 1. Although sales have decreased to about 109,200 BTC by January 11 (a reduction of over 60%), this group still limits upward price movement.
Ethereum Special Analysis: Head and Shoulders Risk and On-Chain Support
Ethereum shows a more fragile price structure on January 13. Despite a rebound, an active head and shoulders pattern remains visible on the technical charts, indicating a potential bearish reversal.
Ethereum is trying to stabilize without invalidating this pattern. After forming the right shoulder high on January 6, the price is testing a key support zone.
The most critical downside level for Ethereum is around $2,880, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. A daily close below this level would fully activate the bearish pattern and open a potential 20% decline based on the head-to-neck distance. On the positive side, short-term selling pressure has significantly eased. The proportion of holders with 1 week to 1 month of holding time has dropped sharply from about 11.5% in mid-December to around 3.9%. Meanwhile, medium- to long-term holders (6-12 months) have increased their holdings from about 14.7% to 16.2% since late December, indicating steady accumulation rather than chasing short-term momentum.
Money flow indicators (MFI) also show bullish divergence, suggesting that buyers remain active during price weakness, entering the market during pullbacks rather than exiting positions.
🏦 Macro and Industry Dynamics
On January 13, the crypto market is influenced not only by technical factors but also by macroeconomic and industry events. Tonight’s US December CPI data is a focal point. This inflation indicator could impact Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and, consequently, risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, debates over the Fed’s independence are fueling market risk aversion. Former Fed Chair Yellen stated that investigations into Powell have undermined the Fed’s independence, and QCP Capital noted that this controversy has worsened market risk sentiment, causing Bitcoin to retreat after a rally.
Industry developments also include:
Thailand’s Prime Minister has ordered tighter regulation of gold trading and digital assets to combat “gray funds.”
Standard Chartered plans to establish a crypto prime brokerage to expand its digital asset footprint.
💡 Key Observations and Risk Warnings
Based on today’s market performance and data analysis, the following key points are summarized:
Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout: The cup and handle pattern remains intact, but it needs to break above $92,400 and hold above the 20-day EMA. When ultra-long-term holders stop selling will be crucial in determining the pace of the breakout.
Ethereum faces a critical decision: It needs to stay stable above the $3,090–$3,110 on-chain cost zone to prevent falling toward the $2,880 neckline support. If the price continues to strengthen above $3,300, the head and shoulders pattern risk can be alleviated.
Macro Events Dominate
Short-term volatility: Tonight’s CPI release will be a key catalyst for short-term market direction. Lower-than-expected inflation data could boost risk assets; otherwise, downside pressure may intensify.
Liquidation Risks to Watch: The liquidation map shows dense long liquidation zones below Bitcoin at $89,000–$90,500, mainly involving 50x and 100x leverage. A decline into this zone could trigger chain reactions of liquidations, amplifying downward pressure.
Regulatory and Institutional Movements: From tightening regulations in Thailand to Standard Chartered’s digital asset initiatives, the dual dynamics of regulation and institutional participation are shaping the long-term environment of the crypto market.
As the daily trading session nears its end, the crypto market shows a rare period of calm. Bitcoin traders are watching the $92,400 breakout point closely, while Ethereum holders are holding their breath at the $3,100 support level.
Analysts are debating: will the bullish strength of the cup and handle pattern prevail, or will the bearish warning of the head and shoulders pattern come true? The total market cap of cryptocurrencies has risen by 0.46% to $3.11 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index has recovered from extreme fear in November to 41, indicating a slow recovery in market sentiment. After tonight’s CPI release, the market will face a direction choice. Regardless of the outcome, this weekend’s crypto world is unlikely to be calm.