Once the US dollar index weakens, assets denominated in USD are almost all affected—gold, US stocks, crude oil, BTC all rise together. The logic behind this seems simple: the more the US economy weakens, the less valuable the dollar becomes, and the things bought with dollars naturally become more expensive.

But the problem lies here. If the US actually enters a recession, investors would panic and sell off assets en masse, which would instead push their prices down. So it creates a strange dilemma: when the US is too strong, the dollar appreciates, and assets are suppressed; when the US is too weak, market panic also suppresses assets.

Over the years, the flow of safe-haven funds has been changing. It used to flow into traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, then shifted to gold. But now gold has changed its nature—speculative trading far exceeds investment, and it is no longer a pure safe-haven asset.

The current dilemma is that truly reliable safe-haven assets have yet to be found. While crypto assets like BTC and Ethereum are gaining attention, they are not yet capable of supporting the scale of global safe-haven capital. Perhaps this itself is a question worth pondering.