XAG's recent surge from 73 to 89 looks very momentum-driven, but the story might not be that simple. On the surface, factors such as tightening Chinese exports, explosive demand in photovoltaics and data centers, and inventories at decade lows all seem solid. However, large funds have long been positioning in advance.

From the market data, as prices rise, open interest and total value are expanding simultaneously, indicating that big capital is actively pushing prices higher, rather than a false rally driven by retail sentiment. But at the 89.17 level, the trend suddenly shifts.

Active buying suddenly disappears, while sell orders continue to pour in. This isn't a normal technical pullback; it resembles large funds gradually exiting their positions at high levels. The 1-hour MACD has already shown a clear bearish divergence, with the red bars shrinking, indicating that the bullish momentum is being gradually eroded.

Currently, XAG is oscillating around 87.87, seemingly searching for support, but in reality, it might be a buffer zone where big funds haven't fully exited yet. If the 85 support level is broken, the next support could be around 83.30, or even a retreat to the 80 range.

Don't misunderstand—long-term fundamentals remain positive, but the issue is that big funds are playing the swing trade for profit differences, and they won't wait around for years. Chasing in at this point is likely just helping others to take the last of the positions.