Recently, many people have been discussing whether ASTER or Hyperliquid has a better outlook. Instead of guessing, it's better to look at the data.

**Current Market Share**

As of 2025, Hyperliquid accounts for 47.6% of on-chain derivatives open interest, with ASTER at 15.9%, ranking second. At first glance, the gap seems significant, but the story isn't that simple. ASTER's trading volume growth is quite rapid, even surpassing Hyperliquid's market share during certain periods last year. For example, in one week, ASTER's total trading volume accounted for 20%, while Hyperliquid was only 18%. This momentum indicates a reshuffling in the market.

**Differences in Technical Implementation Paths**

Hyperliquid adopts a fine-grained on-chain matching approach. Its on-chain matching performance and liquidity foundation are solid. The HIP-3 upgrade in October last year introduced permissionless perpetual market creation, which significantly boosted ecosystem growth. Additionally, its integration with Flare's fXRP directly connects XRP spot trading to the platform, indirectly increasing platform fee revenue and practical utility.

ASTER's strategy leans toward multi-dimensional deployment. It supports multiple public chains such as BNB Chain, Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Solana, which is itself a competitive advantage. More interestingly, it has designed two trading modes. The Pro mode features hidden orders and anti-MEV functions, specifically for funds that do not want to expose order details and trading directions. This detailed design reflects the project's understanding of privacy needs. The upcoming Aster Chain mainnet, scheduled for Q1 2026, is expected to further enhance privacy and trading efficiency.

**Long-term Token Economics Battle**

This is where the two projects diverge the most. Hyperliquid's HYPE uses a traditional crypto-economic design, with 93% of protocol revenue allocated for buybacks, creating strong deflationary expectations. Currently, 43.4% of the total supply has been staked. Sounds good, but the issue lies in the core contributor token unlock scheduled for November 2025. Over the next 24 months, approximately $11.9 billion worth of HYPE will be released, creating significant selling pressure.

ASTER's distribution logic is entirely different. 53.5% of the total supply is directly allocated to airdrops and the community, with only 5% to the team, and the unlock schedule is very long. While this design results in less dilution initially, it is more controllable in the long run. The protocol revenue is not entirely used for buybacks but split into ASTER buybacks and governance rewards, allowing for more flexible pacing.

**Key Issues**

For ASTER to truly surpass Hyperliquid, it needs to continue making efforts in three dimensions: expanding market share, growing the user base, and iterating on products. It also must face challenges from increasing market competition and regulatory uncertainties. In the short term, this competition has just begun; who wins or loses in the long run will depend on product innovation and market acceptance.