Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates early? The probability rises to 42% in April, traders are betting this way

【Blockchain Rhythm】Latest news indicates a shift in traders’ expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies. On January 13th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the core consumer price index rose less than expected, sending an important signal to the market—that Federal Reserve Chair Powell may not wait until the end of his term in May to start cutting interest rates.

This signal is strong enough to prompt market participants to immediately adjust their bets. While June is still considered the most likely window for rate cuts, the latest market data suggests that the probability of a rate cut in April has risen to 42%, up from 38% before the data release.

For traders focused on macro trends, this shift cannot be ignored. Easing inflation pressures imply a potential turning point in monetary policy, which will directly impact the performance of risk assets and the market liquidity environment. Although the time gap between April and June is not long, each month can potentially rewrite expectations in market pricing and asset allocation.