Can XRP Break Free From Technical Weakness Despite Strong ETF Inflows?

Spot XRP ETF inflows have been firing on all cylinders—18 consecutive positive close days is nothing to brush off. Yet the market is sending a conflicting signal: XRP’s price structure remains deeply compromised, and a positive ETF tape alone won’t rescue a chart that’s still struggling to find its footing.

Currently trading at $2.28 with a +3.78% daily move, XRP sits in a curious middle ground. The inflow story is bullish on paper, but beneath the surface, technical deterioration tells a different tale. The token has already surrendered the Daily Imb support zone, a loss that weakens the case for near-term recovery. For traders watching the tape, this matters far more than another week of ETF buying.

The ETF Narrative Isn’t Enough—Price Still Calls the Shots

This is where many retail traders get trapped. When institutional forex ETF products or spot vehicles show strong demand, it’s easy to assume that momentum will carry the asset higher. In XRP’s case, that assumption breaks down once you zoom into the actual price levels.

The core issue: positive ETF flows are a demand signal, but they’re not a reversal signal. A flow can be supportive, can slow a decline, can even seed a base—but it cannot by itself turn a weak chart into a strong one. Until XRP’s market structure flips in a clean, visible way, treating any rally as confirmation buying is premature. The safer frame is accumulation: building exposure gradually while expecting price to probe lower before a real bottom takes shape.

Analysts observing XRP have emphasized this exact point. When you strip away the ETF headlines and look at what the chart is actually doing, the picture shifts. The token has lost key support, and without a confirmed reversal pattern on lower timeframes, any bump higher is likely a bear trap disguised as a relief rally.

New Year Thin Conditions Are Weighing on the Entire Altcoin Complex

January trading volumes are historically light, and 2025 is proving no exception. Thin liquidity plus a lack of clear directional bias has created an environment where altcoins don’t crash in one violent move—they bleed sideways and downward in slow, grinding fashion. No single catalyst needed; just insufficient aggressive buying to shift momentum.

XRP is trapped in this exact dynamic. The Daily Imb zone loss signals that sellers had enough ammunition to push through a key support level, yet buying didn’t step in hard enough to defend. That’s the texture of a weak market. And in weak markets, support levels often morph into resistance zones after they break—a painful lesson for anyone who bought the dip thinking it was “the bottom.”

Three Walls of Resistance Block Any Near-Term Bounce

If XRP finds demand and attempts a recovery, the path upward is lined with headwinds:

First barrier: $1.98 sits as the most immediate resistance where selling is likely to resurface. This level isn’t accidental; it represents prior swing structure and a zone where technical traders have orders stacked.

Second layer: The YO region, which remains critical to XRP’s broader setup. Reclaiming this area is non-negotiable if the longer-term trend is to flip bullish. Without it, any rally stays tactical at best.

Third obstacle: The red boxed zone above $1.98, which holds another pocket of seller interest. Collectively, these three zones form a ceiling that could repeat block bounce attempts multiple times before price either powers through all three or capitulates lower.

The Deeper Downside Scenario Nobody Wants to Price In

Should market suppression continue and crypto volatility spike, the $1.53 area emerges as a hypothetical accumulation zone. Crucially, this isn’t a prediction—it’s a contingency. Whether price ever reaches $1.53 hinges on macroeconomic backdrop, broader liquidity conditions, and whether the wider digital asset complex suffers a sharper correction.

What matters now is acknowledging the risk. In an environment where buying support without clear breakout structures is added by hopeful sentiment rather than technical evidence, the downside feels more probable than a V-shaped bounce.

The Bottom Line: Chart Dominates Narrative

XRP’s 18-day positive ETF streak is a supportive data point, not a reversal catalyst. Price action speaks louder than inflows. Until XRP’s structure shows a confirmed shift—a clean higher low, a breakout above resistance, or some other undeniable bullish signal—traders are better off thinking of any current levels as gradual accumulation zones rather than confirmed entry points.

The market doesn’t care that ETFs posted another winning week. What it cares about is whether buyers can reclaim the Daily Imb, whether $1.98 can be cleared, and whether price can reconstruct a base. Until those technical questions get answered, the tape remains bearish regardless of what the flow data suggests.