Will gold continue to rise or will it burst like a bubble? Gold price forecast from now until the end of 2026

Gold has surpassed $4,000. Those who have been holding gold since the beginning of this year are probably smiling. But if you’re still hesitating whether to buy now or not, this article will give an overview of the market signals pointing in which direction.

Up 66% in Seven Months: Gold is Gaining Momentum

The gold price started 2025 at around $3,000 per ounce and has now developed to over $4,000. This means a 66% increase in just seven months. The speed of this adjustment indicates strong buying pressure.

Compared to the previous cycle from $2,000 to $3,000, which took fourteen months, this acceleration is even greater.

In Thailand, the situation is similar. 96.5% gold bars have already broken through 62,000 THB, making the previous target of 55,000 THB outdated within just a few weeks.

Why is gold surging so strongly?

Trade wars and economic uncertainty

Trade tensions are escalating significantly. The president announced plans to increase import tariffs from China to 100% starting November 1, 2024. In such a situation, global investors rush to find safe havens, and gold becomes a popular choice.

Interest rates are starting to decline

The US has begun lowering interest rates, which means the dollar is weakening. When the dollar weakens, gold traded in dollars becomes more attractive. Additionally, low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. (Gold does not pay interest, but when interest rates are low, this disadvantage diminishes.)

Central banks worldwide are accumulating gold

This is a major story. Central banks in emerging markets have bought over 1,000 tons of net gold annually for three consecutive years (2022-2024) and continue to buy. They are cautious because they fear the dollar. After the Russian funds freeze incident in 2022, many countries realized that relying on a single currency is risky, so they turn to gold as a reserve.

BRICS is considering a new currency

There are reports that the BRICS group might issue a digital currency backed by gold. If true, this is a direct challenge to the dollar, increasing the importance of gold even more.

What do financial institutions forecast for gold?

Goldman Sachs: $4,900 by the end of 2026

This major bank recently raised its target from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce. The reason is that demand from central banks remains stronger than expected, and ETF gold inflows continue unabated.

UBS: $3,500 before the end of 2025

This Swiss financial house expects that you can anticipate reaching $3,500 in the next few months, justified by the steady accumulation of gold by central banks.

For the Thai price, if you multiply the $4,900 target with the current exchange rate, you might see levels of 75,000-80,000 THB per baht of gold within 2026.

But beware: Factors that could reverse the trend

When US-China negotiations succeed

If good news emerges from the negotiation table and tensions ease, investors might exit safe assets, and gold prices could turn around because the need for safe haven diminishes.

Profit-taking

With such a strong rise over 8 consecutive weeks, holders will likely want to sell. Especially if the chart shows overbought signals (Overbought), technical indicators may warn of a correction.

Dollar rebound

If the US economy performs better than expected, the Fed might not cut interest rates as the market anticipates. The dollar would strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold.

Inflation remains high

If inflation persists, the Fed may keep interest rates high, making non-yielding assets like gold more expensive in relative terms.

How to read RSI and charts?

The RSI of gold is too high, indicating it has been overbought. Usually, when RSI exceeds 70, it warns of a potential correction. However, in a strong uptrend, high RSI can persist even with minor pullbacks.

Looking at candlestick patterns (candlestick patterns), a Shooting Star may appear, often indicating a short-term reversal. But since the overall trend remains bullish, any correction is just a pause.

3 Trading Strategies for Now

Strategy 1: Buy on dips (Buy the Dip)

Since gold is in a mid-term uptrend but rising rapidly, a correction is likely. Consider:

• Waiting for the price to pull back to $3,859 (October support) or $3,782 (strong support)
• Checking if RSI drops to 50 or MACD changes direction
• Setting a stop-loss below $3,750
• Target profit at $4,100 or higher

Strategy 2: Breakout retest (Breakout Retest)

After breaking $4,000, the price might revisit that level:

• Wait for the price to dip to $3,980–$4,000
• Look for high volume buying that pushes the price back up
• Enter after a bullish reversal candle appears
• Stop-loss at $3,950
• Target: $4,100–$4,150

Strategy 3: Fibonacci retracement (Fibonacci Retracement)

Draw Fibonacci from the recent low (3,500) to the high (4,059):

• Look for support at 38.2% or 61.8%
• Enter when the price retraces to these levels and shows reversal signals
• Place stop-loss below the Fibonacci levels

Summary: Gold will continue but requires patience

Overall: The gold price still shows an overall bullish trend. Goldman Sachs forecasts $4,900 by late 2026, and UBS, J.P. Morgan share similar outlooks.

For Thai prices: It’s not surprising to see levels of 75,000–80,000 THB per baht of gold by 2026.

But beware: The market could pause, take profits, or reverse if tensions ease. Therefore, if you want to buy, be patient and wait for good entry points. Don’t lose hope that gold will go higher; instead, observe RSI, candlestick patterns, and news factors carefully. Note: Investing involves risks and may not be suitable for everyone.