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As of 08:00 on January 5th, the price is reported at $3,139, and there are still reasons to be bullish in the short term.
The daily MACD remains in a bullish alignment, which is quite crucial. The price is steadily above the moving average line, and this is even more evident on the 4-hour chart — the strong upward trend with ADX at 43 is clearly visible. On the derivatives side, short positions are being liquidated at a ratio of 71% ($15.2M), indicating that the bulls are currently in control of the game. Based on the current structure, the price is expected to oscillate within the $3,120-$3,200 range, with about a 60% probability of an upward move, targeting $3,170-$3,200.
**Key support levels**:
- $3,126: 1-hour Bollinger Band lower band
- $3,100: This is the maximum pain point for options, with short liquidation pressure accumulating over $950M+
**Resistance levels to watch**:
- $3,160: Short liquidation starting point ($12.7M)
- $3,192: 4-hour Bollinger Band upper band
- $3,200: Highest liquidation density here ($66M+)
From a multi-timeframe perspective, the 1-hour chart touches the Bollinger Band upper band ($3,150), and the 4-hour chart remains above EMA20($3,102)/EMA50($3,047), favoring the bulls. However, attention should be paid to signals like overbought RSI on the 4-hour chart and narrowing MACD histogram — these could trigger a short-term correction.
Open interest totals $41.7B (up 0.34% in 24 hours), indicating sufficient market liquidity. With this volume, any directional move can be amplified easily, so proper risk management remains essential.
The upper band of the Bollinger Bands has already touched $3,150. Based on this coefficient, escape velocity is definitely sufficient.
The key is the $950M long position in the $3,100 zone, which is a danger zone. Keep a close eye on stop-loss levels.
Liquidity at $41.7B is supporting the market; it's unlikely to crash in the short term. The probability favors a bullish move.
Don't ignore the RSI overbought signal; a significant pullback could happen. Prepare your fuel supplies.