Researchers at Greeks.Live, Adam, posted an interesting observation on December 11th.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time, which was already expected by the market and not surprising. What is truly noteworthy is their plan to repurchase $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds—this operation will inject liquidity into the financial system, sounding quite dovish.

But here’s the question: can this alone trigger a bull market in the crypto space?

That’s too optimistic. The end of the year is a very special time—combining Christmas holidays with the annual settlement window. Historical experience tells us that liquidity in the crypto market often hits a low point during this period. Relying on this policy tailwind to ignite a rally? Clearly insufficient momentum.

Data from the options market reveals some clues: over half of the positions are set to expire in December. Bitcoin’s maximum pain point is stuck at the $100,000 mark, while Ethereum hovers around $3,200. More importantly, implied volatility across major maturities has been decreasing this month, indicating market expectations of less dramatic swings.

Overall, the market is indeed somewhat weak at the moment. Liquidity is drying up, sentiment is subdued, and most participants tend to be bearish. But let’s also remember that the market loves to surprise everyone—there’s always a possibility of sudden, unexpected positive news that could directly reverse the situation.

After all, in the crypto market, anything can happen.