2025-12-10 16:22:12

This Thursday at 3:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's December FOMC decision will be announced, and the market can no longer hold back.

Currently, the market assigns an 89.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the interest rate range to 3.5%-3.75%. However, interestingly, there may be a 7:5 split in the internal voting—Powell and his core members' stance will directly determine the final outcome.

Even more exciting, there is a possibility of restarting balance sheet expansion operations in January, with monthly purchases of $40 to $45 billion in short-term government bonds. It’s worth noting that November's ADP employment data directly decreased by 32,000, and major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have collectively shifted their stance, betting on a rate cut happening.

Powell's statement this time will essentially set the tone for the rate cut path in 2026. Will the rate cut materialize or will the balance sheet expansion continue? What do you think? Share your judgment.

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ForeverBuyingDips

· 12-13 13:19

89.6%? I bet Powell will do a reverse move just for the thrill. The 7:5 split can be traded; the core members' attitude is the trigger—who changes their stance first wins. Expanding the balance sheet by 40 billion? Oh my, are they going to keep easing? My altcoins might have a chance. When the ADP data shows a decrease, rate cuts are basically guaranteed—Goldman Sachs has even given up. The 2026 roadmap might be set in stone; this decision carries unusual weight, and it could be a leading indicator. Cutting rates might actually be a risk; balance sheet expansion could be the real bomb. Wait until 3 AM—anyway, there’s always a reason for the market to go up or down; that’s just how it is. I don’t believe anything Powell says; what matters is the follow-up actions. The words on paper don’t mean much.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 12-11 05:04

7:5 split? Powell and his team are indeed fighting internally --- 89.6% rate cut? I feel like it's been decided long ago, just waiting to see how much they can get --- Expanding the balance sheet? Never mind, I'll just wait for the bottom to buy in --- It's 3 a.m. again, and I can't sleep --- Goldman Sachs has already shifted, so I have to go against the trend --- If this decision really happens, let's wait to make money in 2026 --- Cutting rates again? In the end, it's just draining liquidity. Don’t tell me stories --- 25 basis points? That's too mild, I think the market will be disappointed --- Just waiting for Powell to speak, big banks are betting, so I am betting too --- Expanding the balance sheet again? How can we get through these days, cash is also losing value

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ApeWithNoFear

· 12-10 16:51

7:5 Split? That's just Powell still pretending to be neutral. They've already made the decision. --- 89.6% probability to max out, just waiting for the verdict at 3 a.m. Thursday. --- Expanding the balance sheet by 40-45 billion dollars, this time they're really going all in. The market can't wait anymore. --- ADP drops by 32,000. The data speaks for itself. No rate cuts in sight. --- Is Powell being merciful or just easing up? This move will impact the entire 2026 outlook. --- Even with a 7:5 internal split, it seems highly likely that the rate hike will be 25 basis points. The question is about the balance sheet expansion. --- Speaking of big players like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley shifting their stance, what can retail investors say? Just follow along.

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LazyDevMiner

· 12-10 16:50

Powell is up to something again. Staying up until 3 a.m. to watch the decision is really impressive. Rate cuts or balance sheet expansion, honestly, it's all just easing measures. We're small investors just waiting to reap the benefits haha. A 7:5 split sounds like there's some internal disagreement. This kind of situation is most prone to black swan events. An 89.6% probability is a bit optimistic. History has shown many cases of sudden reversals, so we should be cautious when gambling. Just considering the fact that in January they plan to buy $40 to $45 billion in government bonds, the money is definitely going to be invested. The only question is where to invest it.

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GamefiEscapeArtist

· 12-10 16:46

89.6%? This probability number just looks like it’s hinting at a reverse operation haha The 7:5 split is the key issue; a word from Bao Ye can change everything, really Wait, lowering interest rates while expanding the balance sheet? This logic is a bit hard to hold up Just want to know if the results released at 3 AM can prevent me from losing money in the morning... Last time I messed around like this, the crypto market took a serious hit; I dare not have too high expectations

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HashBandit

· 12-10 16:46

honestly the fed's about to print money again and nobody's talking about what that does to network fees lol... when bitcoin was still mineable on gpu i could actually afford the gas, now? 89.6% chance they crater rates and suddenly everyone's moving capital to crypto again but the l2 adoption metrics still suck so we're gonna see tps bottleneck within hours ngl

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SlowLearnerWang

· 12-10 16:43

It's 3 a.m. again, and I have to stay up late to watch the show. Truly amazing. Wait, a 7:5 split? Does that mean Powell hasn't made a final decision yet? What are we betting on? A 25 basis point cut doesn't seem like much. It feels like the market has already digested it, maybe it's another reversal in the making.

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