Is the Federal Reserve about to make a big move? Cutting interest rates combined with balance sheet expansion—this year's end operation is pretty intense!

With less than 10 trading days until the end of the year, the market is all eyes on tonight's FOMC meeting. The probability of a rate cut in December has already surged to 90%, with most institutions betting on another 25 basis point decrease, bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range. But what's truly explosive isn't the rate cut itself—balance sheet runoff just stopped, and expansion might be next! Rumors say the Fed is preparing to buy $45 billion in short-term government bonds each month, which would instantly boost liquidity.

Why the sudden aggressiveness? Employment data is flashing red. The unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months to 4.4%, and the unemployment rate among recent graduates has soared to 8.5%, signaling a clear cooling of the labor market. Although inflation hasn't been fully brought under control, the Fed can't afford to worry too much right now—stabilizing employment comes first. Market interpretations point to a "hawkish rate cut"—yes, they’re cutting, but don’t expect much room to maneuver afterward. However, they can’t resist the real money brought by expanding the balance sheet!

Wall Street has already started celebrating early. The S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs, and traders are gearing up for a "Christmas rebound"—the Russell 2000 index has a historical win rate of 78% in December, and tech stocks have been on a relentless rise lately. Morgan Stanley has even set a target of 7,800 points for the S&P 500 next year, and even the conservative Bank of America projects 7,100 points. The entire market is betting on the dividends from this easing cycle.

Speaking of which, we need to talk about the crypto market. When the stock market rises, can cryptocurrencies be absent? Historically, every time the Fed loosens monetary policy, mainstream coins like BTC and ETH never fall behind. Will this rate cut + expansion double buff trigger a crypto rally? The Christmas season has always been mysterious—can we expect another surprise this year?

Do you think the Fed will stick to the script tonight? Can the crypto market ride this wave to break previous highs? Do you prefer traditional stocks, or believe cryptocurrencies have more resilience?