The Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on December 9-10 could be the last major event this year capable of stirring the markets.

Cutting 25 basis points? That has been a known fact for a while, but guess what—the real drama is just beginning.

The market is betting on a rate cut, but the problem is that this outcome has already been priced in. What truly determines the fate of risk assets is how divided the Federal Reserve insiders are and what the picture they paint for next year looks like.

This internal tug-of-war might be more intense than expected. Being forced to compromise and cut rates is entirely different from genuinely easing liquidity. I expect the dissenting votes won't be few, and such internal disunity in rate cuts might not be good for the crypto space—that is, cryptocurrencies thrive on sentiment and liquidity flows, and if the atmosphere feels off, money becomes less active.

Powell is highly likely to implement the 25bp cut, but he definitely won't be smiling on stage.

In essence, he will need to use tougher language to suppress expectations of future rate cuts or directly tell the market: don't expect the autopilot mode of rate reductions anymore. The entire meeting will be packaged as an "extremely cautious risk management operation"—a cut is made, but don’t expect me to look relaxed about it.

While rate cuts are indeed dovish moves, if the dovishness is not obvious, it simply leads to volatile trading in the crypto market. What do risk markets want? Certainty of a new cycle. But every time the Fed and Powell hold a meeting or release dot plots, they frame current actions as a "one-time response" while constantly increasing future uncertainty.

The result is: each rate cut (including next year's) tends to follow a similar pattern—initially a rally on the good news, then a pullback to give back about half of the gains.

If you have enough experience, you might cautiously try shorting BTC or ETH within a few hours after the rate cut announcement. Of course, this is a high-risk move—don’t go all-in blindly.

Right now, the market is betting on an attitude, not on whether the rate cut will happen or not.