Recently, cross-strait regulatory actions have been frequent, and the stablecoin market has been pushed to the forefront. Many people exclaimed that "the bear market is coming", but if you carefully disassemble the policy details, you may find completely different signals.

Let's look at the actions on the mainland side first. 13 departments jointly characterized stablecoin-related businesses as "illegal financial activities" - issuance, trading, and payment, and the entire industrial chain was completely blocked. In the first 10 months of this year, 342 cases were solved, and the scale of intercepted funds reached 4.6 billion. With the background of cross-border payment exceeding 10 trillion yuan in digital yuan, it is obvious that this is clearing obstacles for a compliant digital currency system.

Hong Kong's policies are easily misread. The new regulations are not about "blocking USDT", but about setting entry thresholds: paid-in capital of HK$25 million, 100% high liquidity reserves, and full traceability. Retail investors really can't touch it, but professional investors can still use it. To put it bluntly, this is to kick out non-compliant funds and make room for institutional funds.

What is more worth pondering is the market reaction: USDT fluctuated, but ETH suddenly rose violently, and BTC's position structure continued to be optimized. If it is really "bearish", funds should panic and evacuate, but the current situation is more like - funds in stablecoins are frantically pouring into mainstream currencies.

Tightening of regulation is never the end of the market, but may be the beginning of a reshuffle. Gray funds exit and institutional funds enter, and this switch often occurs on the eve of the start of the bull market. When retail investors are still anxious about the "negative policy", smart money may have completed the layout.

The real risk is not the policy itself, but whether we can understand the flow of funds behind the policy. Poor cognition is the deadliest thing in the bull-bear cycle.