The prediction market is becoming one of the sexiest tracks of this era.

Look no further than Polymarket and Kalshi. These platforms let you bet on any real-world outcome – who will win the presidential election? Who will win the next Super Bowl? Will Apple's new products bounce tickets? From politics to sports, from technology to entertainment, as long as you dare to think, someone dares to open. Number of participants? Record. Media exposure? Headlines every day.

Take Polymarket as an example, users express their judgment on the future by buying and selling "event shares". On this platform alone, the trading volume is already tens of millions of dollars. As for Kalshi? Behind them stand Y Combinator and Sequoia Capital, and they have also obtained a compliance license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is no joke.

Why is it popular?

To put it bluntly, prediction markets hit the three core buttons of human nature: curiosity, interests, and information anxiety. When you bet your money on a prediction, you research, analyze, and verify it more seriously than ever before. At this time, the predictions are often more accurate than those of experts.

And now, blockchain has completely upgraded this set of gameplay. Transparent, efficient, and global - no middlemen to earn price differences, no black box operations, everything is open on-chain.

How exactly does it work? **

Simply put, prediction markets allow you to buy and sell "contracts for future events".

For example, a market asked if Bitcoin would break $100,000 by 2026. Do you think so? Then buy the call contract and you will earn when the event comes true. You don't think so? Then go short or sell. The market price is the probability of consensus among all participants.

If a contract is selling for $0.65 now, it means that the market thinks there is a 65% chance that this will happen. The higher the price, the stronger the consensus. Price fluctuations? That is, information is flowing, expectations are being updated.

That's the charm of prediction markets – it's not fortune-telling, it's about turning group wisdom into tradable assets.