The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has exploded again - the data is far lower than market expectations. At first glance, it may seem like good news for a strong economy, but in the crypto market, it may not be that simple. The devil is often hidden in the details, and we have to break it open.

Let's talk about the most direct impact first: the Fed's abacus may have to be re-hit. With such a low unemployment rate, the labor market can withstand it, and inflationary pressures will naturally not subside. Originally, the market was still fantasizing about seeing the dawn of interest rate cuts this year, but now it seems that the hawkish stance is likely to continue for a longer time. Once the high-interest rate environment is established, liquidity is tight, and risk assets - especially cryptocurrencies, which are highly volatile, are naturally the first to be smashed. After all, the money has gone to the safe income of treasury bonds, who would want to gamble on this?

Let's look at the dollar again. Strong economic data is there, and the US dollar index will most likely continue to strengthen. There is an old pattern here: the dollar rises, and Bitcoin falls. The negative correlation between the two is not a matter of a day or two, and the historical chart is pulled out at a glance. So don't expect any explosive performance in the short term.

More subtle is the institutional funds. Bitcoin ETFs have finally become a channel for regular troops to enter the market in the past two years, but macro expectations have changed, and the allocation strategies of these hedge funds have to be adjusted. If the market generally believes that "high interest rates will continue for a long time", then the pace of capital inflows through ETFs may slow down or even see net outflows.

So is this wave of data bearish or exhausted? The key points are two points: first, whether there are signs of loosening the wording of the Fed's next interest rate meeting, and second, whether market sentiment will be digested in advance because expectations are fulfilled. It's too early to draw conclusions, but at least in the short term, don't get too much hope for a big rise.