Just witnessed Bitcoin plummet 8% in a single day and nearly $1 billion in liquidations—a bloodbath. Now, the Fed’s December rate cut is about to drop. Will this round of easing really save the market, or will it just trigger another round of shakeouts?

The logic behind rate cuts isn’t complicated—the central bank injects liquidity, borrowing costs drop, and naturally, funds flow into high-yield assets like crypto. The problem is, this time the expectation has already been heavily priced in. When the probability of a rate cut soared from 30% to 87%, Bitcoin already had a rebound—the good news is basically priced in.

What’s more troubling is the current market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 23, deep in extreme fear territory. Institutions are quietly retreating—November saw $3.5 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, and whales dumped over $20 billion. Even if the rate cut actually happens, that fleeing capital might not dare come back in the short term.

But historical data does offer some hope: in past rate cut cycles, Bitcoin has averaged gains of 80% to 100%. However, the early stages of these cycles usually see severe volatility—so be mentally prepared for that.

There’s also an unpredictable factor—the Fed is now deeply divided. The hawks worry about inflation rebounding, while the doves want to save the market. If, after a rate cut, Fed officials start talking tough again, it could instantly turn bullish news into bearish. On the other hand, it could ignite a new rally—no one can say for sure.

Technically, $85,000 is a key level. If it holds, a push to $95,000 is possible; if it breaks, $74,000 isn’t out of the question. At this point, staying calm and observing is more important than blind speculation.