Recently, this data is really starting to fall apart—the ratio of leading to coincident indicators for the US economy has dropped to 0.85. What does that mean? It's the lowest point since the 2008 financial crisis, and it has been declining for four consecutive years.

Anyone with a bit of economic knowledge knows that leading indicators reflect future trends (like consumer confidence, manufacturing orders, etc.), while coincident indicators show the current situation (such as employment data). Historical experience tells us that once the ratio between these two indicators collapses, an economic recession is almost inevitable.

So what does this have to do with the crypto market? A lot. In the short term, as soon as the economy is expected to enter a recession, risk assets will be the first to be sold off—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the like will most likely face a wave of selling pressure. But if the Fed eventually can’t withstand the pressure and shifts from raising rates to cutting them—essentially opening the liquidity floodgates—then as liquidity eases, funds will flow back into the crypto market, and in the long run, a rebound might actually occur.

The toughest part right now is this “limbo period”: the economic data is already flashing red, but the Fed hasn’t made a statement yet. The market is likely to enter “roller-coaster mode” in the coming days—sharp drops and spikes alternating, with volatility maxed out.

So, what do you think? Should we wait and see for a lower entry point, or get in early and bet on a rebound? Anyway, I think the market trends in the coming months will be very interesting.