Let’s talk about what’s going to happen next—for those friends who are new to the space.

Many people are experiencing a full bull-bear market cycle for the first time this round. What will they do? You can actually get a sense from their comments in the community.

When the market turns, human weaknesses get amplified. After the top is in and things start heading down, people are still basking in the thrill of previous gains. “It’s just a technical correction,” “the fundamentals haven’t collapsed,” “big money will definitely defend the price”—these kinds of voices are everywhere. Everyone is calling to HODL and buy the dip.

The path ahead basically splits into three stages:

**Stage One: Frenzied dip-buying.**
When prices first start dropping, people actually buy even more, even go all-in with leverage, treating lowering their average entry price as a conviction.

**Stage Two: Refusing to let go no matter what.**
Once key levels are broken and accounts go from green to red, they still won’t admit defeat. “Paper losses aren’t real losses”—this phrase becomes a self-soothing mantra.

**Stage Three: Blaming external factors.**
Negative news, whales dumping, institutions offloading, regulatory crackdowns… anything becomes a scapegoat for the downturn. The one thing people refuse to face is that the trend has completely reversed.

When BTC drops 50% to 70%, altcoins are decimated, and market liquidity dries up to a suffocating extent, newcomers will finally realize in deep despair that “the bull market is really over.” Unfortunately, by then most people are already deeply trapped, unable to move, and might even capitulate at the very bottom.

Newcomers who haven’t experienced a full cycle are very likely to walk this well-trodden path. Time will tell.