Yesterday’s sharp early drop in BTC definitely scared quite a few people. But looking calmly at today’s on-chain data, the situation isn’t as bad as imagined.

First, let’s talk about entity-adjusted realized loss (EARL)—this metric directly reflects the degree of capitulation in the market. The data from December 1 shows about $820 million. At first glance, that’s a lot, but compared to the panic peak of $2.34 billion on November 21, the scale has already shrunk by two-thirds. Prices are falling, but there hasn’t been another stampede exit.

Next, let’s look at loss-making funds flowing into exchanges: about $80 million on December 1. This figure is not only much lower than the $320 million on November 21, but even milder than the sell-offs on November 14 and 17. Looking at the ongoing data, there’s clearly no sign of panic spreading.

Thinking back to the extreme data from November 21, it very likely marked a “panic ceiling” for this stage. Unless there’s some major negative news, even if prices continue to fluctuate, the probability is higher that loss figures will keep shrinking.

There’s a key signal for judging a short-term bottom: each time the market drops, the EARL figure gets smaller, indicating that panic sellers are being gradually cleared out. This “the more it drops, the calmer it gets” state is often a necessary sign that the market is approaching its bottom.

So although this round of correction came suddenly, from both a capital and sentiment perspective, the market’s resilience is much stronger than last month.