A Fed rate cut is inevitable—the more I think about it, the more certain I become. The reason isn’t complicated; if you just lay out a few key facts, it becomes very clear.

Over the past two years, the US has forcibly raised interest rates this high, supposedly to curb inflation, but in reality, it has sacrificed real estate, banks, and even the financing ability of ordinary households. With debt costs at this level, even the US government itself is struggling to hold on. Interest expenses alone have exploded in just one year, and if this continues, the fiscal deficit will snowball out of control—even the US can’t withstand that.

More importantly, high interest rates have begun to backfire on the economy. The manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for a long time, corporate layoffs keep coming in waves, and tech giants are only maintaining a facade of prosperity thanks to the AI hype, but the underlying weakness in consumer spending can’t be hidden. For the stock market to keep rising, liquidity is needed; for real estate to recover, liquidity is needed; and for the US government to survive, liquidity is needed even more. If rates don’t come down, the money won’t return.

There’s another point many people overlook: the US is the global center for capital pricing. When the dollar’s interest rates stay high for a long time, emerging markets are under tremendous pressure. If the US doesn’t cut rates, it will ultimately drag down the entire global dollar ecosystem, not just other countries. The Fed won’t let that chain break.

So the question isn’t “if” rates will be cut, but “when.” In the end, the Fed will have to bow to reality: high interest rates are a tool, not a state that can be maintained long-term. As long as the economy continues to weaken and the fiscal situation remains tight, they’ll have no choice but to press that button.

It’s the same logic on-chain: the direction of liquidity ultimately determines asset prices. And rate cuts are the door for capital to flow back. Once that door opens, the market will naturally show you—why all the big money positions itself in advance.