#美联储重启降息步伐 $LUNA2 and $LUNC’s recent rally has drawn a lot of attention. This wave of price movement isn’t just pure speculation—there’s a clear event catalyst behind it: the founder will face a sentencing hearing on the 11th.

Anyone familiar with the crypto space knows the drill: as long as the event hasn’t actually happened, the market will always start moving in advance around the “potential positive news.” This is the power of the expectation game.

**Event expectations themselves are the strongest speculative narrative**

No matter what the final outcome is, the key is whether the market can sense the “probability of a positive outcome” exists. Once this expectation forms, capital begins to position early, treating the pending news as a real, tangible catalyst. This period is often the most chaotic: prices are pushed up by vague expectations, market sentiment fuels momentum, and big players quietly accumulate positions before retail investors even react.

**Underlying logic of strong price action: most of the tokens have already been accumulated**

Looking at the market structure, $LUNA2 and $LUNC had deep declines and long periods of bottom consolidation in the earlier stage. These types of assets are the easiest for big players to use events for a “double boost.” The reason is simple: limited downside at the bottom makes it easy to push, retail sentiment has been worn down to the lows, and the cost for big players to accumulate is very low. The current trend logic couldn’t be clearer: accumulate at the bottom → use the momentum from the hearing expectations to push prices up → cash out at the top when the event arrives.

This is the simplest rule of the crypto market: tell stories when prices rise, face reality when they fall. The real trading logic is always “follow the sentiment, don’t get bogged down by logic.”

By the way, $USTC is also worth keeping an eye on recently—a similar logic might be brewing there too.