#美联储政策展望 The latest Reuters survey shows that the S&P 500 Index is expected to rise about 12% to 7,490 points by the end of 2026. There are several key factors behind this forecast: the resilience of the US economy, the strong performance of tech stocks, and the Federal Reserve maintaining a relatively accommodative policy stance. However, there are still short-term correction risks, and close attention should be paid to changes in inflation and the pace of interest rate cuts. From a capital flow perspective, if the US stock market does indeed show an upward trend, it is expected to attract more global capital inflows. It is recommended to closely track position changes and capital flows of large institutional investors, as well as sentiment indicators in the derivatives market. At the same time, be wary of potential disruptions from geopolitical risks and fluctuations in economic data.