When I first entered the space 12 years ago, I was most annoyed by those old players hyping up the “four-year cycle”—I thought they were all just making up stories with hindsight. But this time, with the crash from six figures down to five, I finally woke up: cycles aren’t just superstition; they’re iron laws forged with real money in the market.

Recently, my DMs have exploded, all asking the same question: Is this just a bull market correction, or is the bear market here? I won’t beat around the bush—let me be straight: there’s an 80% chance this drop means the bear market is knocking on the door.

After all these years of watching, I’ve seen a few signals that have never failed.

First, the shitcoin frenzy. Remember back in May 2021, when a bunch of junk coins doubled in a single day? It’s just like last month, when those obscure tokens went wild around $110K. This is classic at the end of a bull market—dumb money rushes in, smart money runs away. I warned people in group chats, “Don’t chase the top,” and got called an old fossil who didn’t get the trend. What happened next? Nearly $20 billion in high-leverage contracts across the network got wiped out, giving back all this year’s gains. The guys who chased the top probably don’t even have the strength to cry now.

Then there’s the halving cycle. I went through data from the last three cycles—18 months after each halving is almost always the bull-bear turning point. Right now, we’re right at that timing—BTC can hang on because of institutional support, but altcoins with no narrative or funding? They’re getting cut in half and then halved again, some down 80-90%. That’s not a correction; that’s the market squeezing out the bubbles, bursting all the worthless assets that survived on hype.

Technical indicators and the macro environment are both lining up on the bearish side. In this market, it’s not time to buy the dip—it’s a warning not to be the last bag holder.