#比特币对比代币化黄金 A quiet market has become the norm, but something big is coming this week—the Fed's FOMC meeting is right around the corner.

On the surface, a 25 basis point rate hike is already a done deal, with no suspense. But the real battle is just about to begin. The market has already digested all the known information; what will truly determine the market's direction are those "hidden" factors—what will happen to rates next year, how the dot plot will change, when the balance sheet will move, and whether Powell's tone will be hawkish or dovish.

The scene at the end of last year is still fresh in our minds. The rate-cut cycle was coming, Trump won the election, and the market was "celebrating in advance" with excitement, only to be cooled off directly by Powell's remarks. The turning point from "frenzy" to "complete shutdown" was in that statement—he said there would only be two rate cuts next year, while the market was actually expecting four cuts throughout the year. The huge gap between expectations and reality is often the fundamental reason for sharp market surges or plunges.

So the importance of Powell's wording this time goes without saying. After the new chairman takes over, even if they don't take an aggressive rate-cut approach, they will likely align more closely with Trump's policy stance, gradually steering monetary policy toward a true rate-cut mode.

But here's the question—will this December meeting and the new dot plot "pour cold water" on the market again?

The lesson from before is clear—the dot plot indicated two cuts, but in reality, there were four. The Fed can't keep a stern face forever. If the economy starts to slow down, they'll have to make a choice: stick rigidly to the inflation target and accept recession risks, or pivot to protect the economy and lay the groundwork for the market next year. No matter which path they choose, the market will be deeply affected.

There's another variable that's not discussed much but is very important—the possibility of expanding the balance sheet. If this becomes an expectation, it could bring a qualitative improvement in liquidity conditions, which would be the real trigger for a market rebound.

Current sentiment is already at rock bottom, so it's better to focus on structural opportunities. The logic framework of $BTC $ETH is still there, just waiting for a repricing of policy expectations.