Everyone is waiting for a rate cut in December, with a 92% probability—the highest consensus in history.

BTC is stuck at 91,000, nobody dares to buy or sell.
If you buy now, you’re afraid it’ll dump before the rate cut; if you sell now, you’re afraid it’ll skyrocket right after. 😵
In November, ETF net outflows reached $3.5 billion, marking the second largest monthly redemption in history.
At the beginning of December, a flash crash wiped $4,000 off in 2 hours, with over $400 million in positions liquidated.
The Fear Index shows extreme fear. This isn’t waiting for good news, it’s waiting to see “who gets carried out first.” 📉
Looking at history makes it even tougher:
In August 2024, Japan’s rate hike expectations were at 90%, and BTC plunged 20% in one day.
In 2022, rate hike expectations were at 95%, and the market kept dropping even after the hike was confirmed.
The higher the market consensus, the greater the risk that all the good news is already priced in. ⚠️
At this level, do you really think the big players will follow the script?
‍#BTC #降息预期 #市场情绪