At the close of the Asian session on December 8, spot gold fluctuated around $4,209/oz, with the rebound momentum gradually strengthening—this price level has already stabilized above the 20-day moving average, the RSI continues to run above 60, and more importantly, it remains within the three-month upward channel. In the short term, bullish signals are obvious.

The real drama will unfold on December 9-10. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is about to take place, and the market generally believes there is an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, but that's not the main point. The focus is on Powell’s speech and the dot plot—these will be the keys determining the direction of gold prices. Let’s simulate a few scenarios: if rates are kept unchanged, gold prices may plunge rapidly; if there is a rate cut and the Fed plans a further ≥75 basis points of cuts next year, gold has a chance for a short-term rebound; conversely, if the rate cut expectation for 2026 is ≤50 basis points, gold prices will be under pressure. Powell's wording on inflation and the labor market will also directly affect the strength of the dollar, which in turn will impact gold prices across the board.

On the technical side, the upper hurdle is at $4,300-$4,315/oz, followed by the historical top at $4,380/oz. Support on the downside starts from $4,130-$4,150/oz, then $4,070-$4,077/oz, with the final defense line at $3,975/oz. $BTC