#ETH走势分析 's price has been on a roller coaster recently. Honestly, this round of moves is dizzying to watch. The core logic actually comes down to two forces pulling in opposite directions—easing expectations providing a floor, and policy uncertainty putting on the pressure.

Let's start with the good news. The US ADP employment data for November was a direct blowout, with a rare negative growth in employment numbers, signaling a clear economic slowdown. The market immediately sensed a rate cut coming, and capital started pouring into Bitcoin. In early December, the price surged from $85,000 to $93,000 in one go. Institutions have a clear calculation: weak economy → Fed injects liquidity → inflation-hedge assets become attractive.

But the good times didn’t last. On one side, Fed officials are being evasive with their statements, and on the other, regulatory rumors are swirling during the new government transition. Some say anti-money laundering measures will tighten, others say stablecoins will be reviewed again, and institutions started panicking and selling off. On December 8, Bitcoin fell below $85,000, marking the largest single-day drop in this period. Even worse, more than $1 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, wiping out leveraged players.

Interestingly, regulation is actually a double-edged sword. The approval of spot ETFs and handing regulatory authority to the CFTC have brought a massive influx of institutional funds, supporting the rally in the second half of the year. But once enforcement agencies get serious—for example, when the DOJ seized a large amount of Bitcoin and even cracked a private key—market confidence collapses instantly. The myth of "private key absolute security" was shattered, with ETFs seeing a single-day net outflow of $870 million in late November and prices plunging accordingly.

But on second thought, enforcement actions actually prove Bitcoin's traceability, which is a reassurance for legitimate institutions looking to enter. There are now 152 listed companies holding Bitcoin, with institutional trading volume accounting for as much as 99.5%, indicating that compliance is accelerating.

Looking ahead, the key short-term event is the Fed’s interest rate decision in December, while in the long run, it’s crucial to watch how the new government’s regulatory details are implemented. Macroeconomic data can't be ignored either—the OECD has already lowered its global economic growth forecast, tariff policies remain uncertain, and investors have mixed attitudes toward high-risk assets. That 6.2% single-day crash in early December, wiping out $230 billion in market value, was a concentrated outbreak of these contradictions.

Overall, Bitcoin is now bouncing back and forth between policy signals and liquidity expectations, and high volatility will be the norm. Anyone wanting to play should be mentally prepared.