For next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, the market may be focusing on the wrong thing.

A 25 basis point rate cut? The probability is close to 90%, so it’s hardly a surprise. What really deserves attention is another signal revealed by a former New York Fed insider—starting in January next year, the Fed may inject $45 billion into the market each month, for six consecutive months, totaling over $250 billion.

This isn’t just about stopping quantitative tightening. This is directly restarting the bond-buying program.

Why the sudden move? The numbers speak for themselves. Over the past two years, quantitative tightening has drained $2.4 trillion from the market, bank reserve levels have continued to drop, and repo rates have frequently breached their upper limits—a classic sign of liquidity drying up. Bank of America strategist Cabana said it plainly: a liquidity injection is necessary, or the system won’t hold.

This so-called “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP) is essentially a lifeline for the banking system. UBS has made similar predictions, expecting significant bond purchases next year. The problem is, when the market lacks not just cheap funding, but funding itself, rate cuts become secondary. Direct bond purchases are the real solution.

The timing is also intriguing. Powell’s term is ending, and his dovish successor is no secret. The policy tone is clearly shifting.

To make matters worse, due to the government shutdown, critical CPI and employment data releases are delayed. The Fed is essentially driving without a dashboard. Goldman Sachs, however, is optimistic—they believe the missing data actually clears the way for rate cuts.

In the short term, the usual year-end liquidity crunch remains, and emergency repo operations could be deployed at any moment.

So next Wednesday, the real thing to watch isn’t how many points rates are cut, but whether that “liquidity faucet” will truly be turned back on. If the bond-buying plan is implemented, its impact on the crypto market could far exceed that of a routine rate cut. How global capital flows will shift—judge for yourself.