#比特币对比代币化黄金 Is the Fed planning a big move on the December FOMC night? The market is watching more than just those 25 basis points.

Here’s where the real action is: Powell might directly announce the restart of a $45 billion short-term Treasury purchase program. Sound familiar? That’s right, a mini version of QE is back. Last time, quantitative tightening was quietly paused back in October. Now there’s a liquidity hole that needs to be filled—if not, the economy could stall at the start of 2026.

What’s even more surreal is that White House economic adviser Hassett has started painting a rosy picture—he thinks 3% growth is too conservative and is calling for 4%+, saying that’s what a “golden year in economic history” deserves. Unless there’s a black swan event, is 2026 in the bag? Even the bond market isn’t buying it.

What’s happening in the data? The 10-year US Treasury yield broke 3.92%, the dollar index is heading straight for 102, and the RMB is struggling to hold up in the short term. Over at the ECB, the probability of rate cuts is surging, emerging markets had a quick rally, but inflation is far from over.

US stock futures rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq is once again approaching all-time highs. What about crypto? $BTC ’s recent volatility is clearly following US dollar liquidity expectations, and $ETH and $ZEC are also watching for the Fed’s statement.

On December 10, will Powell really start the money taps? Can Hassett’s rosy scenario become a reality? Either 2026 really turns into a golden year, or the bubble bursts ahead of schedule—the answer will come next Wednesday night.