#美国经济指标 Looking back at the past several decades of US economic cycles, this time is indeed somewhat unique. Economic growth has slightly accelerated, but inflation remains high and the job market appears weak. This reminds me of the stagflation period in the 1970s. However, the current situation is also different in some ways. The drag on economic growth from tariff policies and immigration enforcement, as well as the potential benefits from productivity improvements, are all new variables.

From a historical perspective, the Federal Reserve tends to act cautiously under such circumstances. It is expected that there will only be another 50 basis points of rate cuts next year, reflecting their efforts to strike a balance between inflation and growth. But we should remain alert, as every time the Fed has been overly tight or loose in the past, it has led to serious consequences.

Compared to other economic cycles, the current situation seems to be at a delicate balance point. The key is to closely monitor changes in productivity growth and inflation expectations. These indicators often provide early signals of the economy’s direction. Overall, although the situation is complex, it is not without hope. History tells us that the economy will eventually find a new balance—the key lies in how we seize opportunities and avoid risks in the process.