Recently, the CIO of a leading investment institution revealed that most of the questions they receive are focused on MicroStrategy—everyone is basically worried about two things: Will being kicked out of the MSCI index trigger a wave of sell-offs? And will the company buckle under pressure and sell their coins?

Let’s talk about the index issue first. In October last year, MSCI signaled that it would reassess the classification standards for companies that hoard crypto, arguing that these firms are increasingly acting more like asset managers than traditional tech companies. JPMorgan has estimated that if MicroStrategy is actually removed, index funds that passively track MSCI would have to sell $2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares.

What are the chances of being kicked out? In my opinion, at least 75%. While Saylor keeps emphasizing that they still have a software business running and has designed quite a few financial derivatives, the fact that MSCI proactively raised the issue probably means they've already made up their minds.

But is this $2.8 billion worth of selling pressure really that scary? I actually don’t think so. I’ve seen too many cases of index adjustments, and the real impact is usually much milder than the numbers suggest—plus the market has already started to price this in. Remember when MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 last December? At the time, estimates said $2.1 billion would be bought, but the share price barely moved. The correction from early October until now has essentially been a preemptive reaction.

As for the claim that they’ll be forced to sell bitcoin, that just doesn’t hold water. MicroStrategy has $1.4 billion in cash on hand, enough to cover a year and a half of bond interest. The earliest batch of bonds matures in February 2027, and it’s only $1 billion—which is nothing compared to their $60 billion bitcoin holdings.

And the most crucial point—Saylor holds 42% of the voting power. It’s hard to find a more diehard bitcoin evangelist than him. He didn’t budge when the stock price tanked in 2022, so do you really think he’ll suddenly change his mind now with bitcoin still hovering above $90,000?