If we must find a historical reference, I think this year is more like 2019, rather than the bull run of 2021.

There are three reasons: First, the macro environment has loosened expectations, but the actual liquidity has not yet been injected; Second, the performance of cryptocurrencies is similar, with BTC rising slightly (this time reaching a new high due to ETF), while altcoins are collectively stagnant; Third, it all relies on the leading platforms creating some small wealth effects—back in 2019, it was the IEO model, and now it has shifted to the Meme craze on BSC.

So according to this logic, will BTC really have a pullback of over 70% next? This question is worth pondering.

BTC-5.62%

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 11-30 09:56

Damn, if we really pull back 70% according to this logic, my little BTC will hurt like hell.

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LayerZeroJunkie

· 11-30 09:53

If we really follow this logic, then the alts in my hands are really suffering. This time BTC hit a new high but other coins are all sleeping; it indeed feels a bit like 2019. Let’s wait until the water really flows in. 70% retracement? Dare to be even more extreme... Why does it feel like we're flipping back to 2019? This year is just a repeat. Meme is taking over IEO, the traps have been upgraded but the pattern is still the same. However, I’m just afraid that the expectations for easing will turn yellow again; that would be really awkward.

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just_another_fish

· 11-30 09:50

Damn, if this logic really holds, I need to quickly stop loss.

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metaverse_hermit

· 11-30 09:32

To be honest, the logic from 2019 doesn't apply now, the environment has completely changed. --- The Meme craze on BSC? That thing plays people for suckers ten times faster than IEOs, don't be too optimistic. --- A 70% retracement? Don't be ridiculous, if that kind of magnitude really happened, a bunch of people would have been liquidated long ago. --- Saying that there isn't enough liquidity and calling it easing, this logic is a bit off; we still need to wait for policies to be truly implemented. --- It's right to lay low with altcoins, but what's different this time is that big institutions have entered the market, haven't you noticed the change in nature? --- It feels like trying to apply historical patterns, but the crypto market has long stopped following this playbook; each time is different.

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