The Fed has shown clear signals for a rate cut.

Director Milan ( Michelle Bowman )'s statement today was quite direct - she believes that the current monetary policy has already put pressure on the economy and that interest rates need to be lowered to neutral levels as soon as possible. This is not the kind of ambiguous official language, but rather a policy suggestion with a sense of urgency:

"Monetary policy is dragging down economic growth"
"The pace of interest rate cuts must be accelerated"
The upcoming employment data will prove this judgment.

To be honest, it is quite rare for Fed officials to so clearly call for interest rate cuts.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Just look back at the market in 2020. That year, after the Fed started its rate-cutting cycle, BTC rose from around $5,000 all the way to $69,000. Of course, it can't be simply compared, but the logic is the same:

Liquidity easing → Cost of funds decreases → Attractiveness of risk assets increases → Bitcoin and other crypto assets benefit.

When the US dollar weakens, Bitcoin often performs strongly; as the cost of leverage decreases, market activity naturally increases; institutional funds will reallocate high-yield assets in a low-interest-rate environment.

The following time windows are worth paying attention to:

In the December FOMC meeting, watch whether Powell's stance shifts.
Monthly non-farm payroll data; a weak labor market will accelerate expectations for interest rate cuts.
CPI data, as long as inflation does not rebound, it leaves enough room for interest rate cuts.

However, I must remind you that the market sometimes inflates expectations too much, and when reality hits, it may actually pull back. But this time is a bit different in that the signals of policy shifts are becoming increasingly frequent.

Interestingly, on-chain data shows that many institutional addresses have been continuously increasing their holdings recently, possibly in anticipation of future moves. Where do you think this rate cut cycle could push BTC?