#Gate广场圣诞送温暖 btc finished the fall in three months, does that make sense logically?

This round of retracement is only about thirty points, which is relatively mild compared to any real bear market. There is no panic, no despair, and the sentiment has not reached the liquidation stage, which indicates that the cycle is not yet over.

Breaking down the rhythm again, BTC usually goes through three stages in a complete downward cycle: time erosion, price breakdown, and emotional collapse. Currently, it has only gone through the first stage. There has been a pullback, but the time is not sufficient, the depth is not enough, and the psychological damage is far from being in place.

The template provided by history is also consistent: a real bear market is never a quick drop followed by a turnaround; it is always prolonged, dragged out, slowly grinded down, with repeated falls, until it drives people to doubt life itself, and only then will it truly reach the bottom.

If the cycle unfolds as usual, it is not extreme for BTC to fall below 60,000, and a downward period extended to about a year would be more in line with the market rhythm.