Market risk appetite is rising, institutions continue to increase Bitcoin reserves.

On June 25, QCP released its daily market observation stating that "despite Israel resuming limited airstrikes hours after a temporary ceasefire, the financial markets experienced almost no fluctuation. Instead of displaying a ‘risk aversion mode’, the market fully shifted to ‘risk preference’—the Nasdaq 100 index reached a historic high, and the S&P 500 index was less than 1% away from its historical closing high in February 2020. Meanwhile, oil prices have completely retracted to levels prior to the outbreak of the conflict, further boosting the shift in market sentiment. Among the S&P 500 components, Coinbase (COIN) surged 12% on Tuesday, closing at $344.94, marking the highest level in over six months.

On the other hand, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to rise. A certain fund has drawn market attention by recently purchasing Bitcoin worth $386 million. This is a clear strategy to use Bitcoin as “corporate treasury reserve assets.” Since the beginning of June, the number of companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets has nearly doubled, with over 240 enterprises now holding a total of 3.45 million BTC. If this trend continues, Bitcoin is expected not only to compete with gold as a macro hedge tool but may even compete in total market capitalization.

In this environment where macro, military, and monetary forces intersect, traditional risk premiums are shifting from “hedging tools” to “market benchmark assumptions.” The market’s tolerance for geopolitical fluctuations is undergoing an unprecedented test.