Analysis of the 2024 U.S. Election Situation: The Factors Behind Trump’s Rising Approval Rating

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from market forecasting platforms shows that Trump’s approval rating is gradually climbing, with the latest projections showing that he has gained 53% support, while his main rival Harris has stuck at 46%. This data change has sparked a lot of attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican nominee, Trump’s rising approval ratings reflect not only his strengths in economic policy, voter mobilization and party cohesion, but also the challenges Harris faces in the election process.

This article will delve into the key factors that have led to the rise in Trump’s approval ratings from multiple angles, including the Democratic Party’s economic policies, the shift in attitudes among moderate voters, the impact of the absence of political figures in key states, and the widespread support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

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I. Harris’s Economic Policy Controversy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core elements of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among centrist voters.

1. Disputes over price control policies

The most controversial aspect of Harris’s economic policy is her proposed price control. These measures are designed to prevent price gouging by limiting the pricing power of businesses on essential goods through legislative means. However, although this policy has a certain role in controlling inflation and protecting the interests of consumers in theory, in practice, economists and policy experts have generally questioned its feasibility.

Many experts believe that price controls can create market distortions, leading to supply chain problems and shortages of goods. Some media editorials pointed out that Harris’s price control policy could disrupt the balance of supply and demand in the market, and even lead to black market and hoarding. This concern is not unfounded, as many price control measures have historically failed due to poor market reactions. As a result, while Harris’s policy can appeal to some voters who want to lower the cost of living in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has dealt a blow to her support among centrist voters, especially among those who are highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges in housing policy

Harris’s housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of America’s increasingly severe housing crisis, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

The problem, however, is that the implementation of this policy is extremely costly, and its economic viability and practical effectiveness have been widely questioned. For example, Harris pledged to build 3 million affordable homes during his first term, but the source of funding and the details of policy implementation were not clearly stated. What’s more, she also pledged not to increase the tax burden on households earning less than $400,000 a year, which means that the entire project could be financed by a large government deficit or a tax hike on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly further intensify criticism within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only unnerves centrist voters, but also calls into question Harris’s credibility in policy implementation. Housing price control and home buyer subsidy policies seem to be direct interests of low- and middle-income voters, but in fact, they may inadvertently trigger further increases in market prices, leading to an exacerbation of the contradiction between supply and demand. Thus, while the housing policy is a testament to Harris’s concern for social issues, the inadequacy of its policy design and the difficulty of its implementation have had a counterproductive effect on the election.

3. Attractiveness and restrictions on the middle class

At the heart of Harris’s economic policy is to improve the quality of life for the middle class, with a particular emphasis on improving the middle class’s economic security by increasing the child tax credit and controlling health care costs. These measures could theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially in the context of high childcare costs and health care costs.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have been welcomed by some voters, the long-term sustainability and funding of these policies remain unanswered. Middle-class votes are crucial for any candidate, but those votes can turn in favor of opponents if policies are not implemented properly. Harris’s policy design, while idealistic, undermines in its implementation, such as the possibility of increasing government deficits, undermine the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

In addition, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some moderates, who believe that these policies could further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty while winning the support of progressives.

4. Overall impact on the election situation

Taken together, Harris’s economic policies, while partly demonstrating her concern for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to increase her support among centrist and economic liberal voters due to the aggressiveness in policy design and the lack of details in its implementation. Instead, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump with a clearer stance and more pragmatic policies.

The controversial nature of these policies not only put Harris on the back foot in the election, but also gave Trump a pretext to attack. Trump can use the uncertainty in these policies to appeal to voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth by emphasizing his experience in managing the economy and his support for market freedom. Thus, the impact of the Democrats’ economic policies in this election is twofold: on the one hand, it strengthens Harris’s support among progressives, and on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key centrist voters, thus setting the stage for Trump’s election to rise.

Second, the attitude of centrist voters in the United States is vacillating

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions are usually unbiased and more focused on the candidate’s actual policies and their impact on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy over Harris’s economic policies, support for her began to decline among centrist voters. On the contrary, while Trump’s economic policies are controversial, his clear positions on tax cuts, economic stimulus, etc., are more in line with the expectations of centrist voters for economic development.

In addition, Trump’s pro-free market attitude, as well as the economic measures he took during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have also won the approval of some centrist voters. By contrast, Harris’s economic policies are seen as too aggressive, especially in areas such as price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to gain support among centrists.

III. The impact of the absence of key state politicians

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor had a negative impact on Harris’s election. Pennsylvania is a key swing state, and the attitude of its voters is crucial to the outcome of the national election. The governor’s absence could be interpreted as a sign of discontent within the party over Harris’s economic policies or campaign strategy, which may have further weakened Harris’s support in the state.

In this case, voters may cast doubt on Harris’s ability to campaign and cohesion within the party, and turn to support the more certain Trump. This not only affected Harris’s election in Pennsylvania, but also indirectly affected her performance in other swing states. For Harris, securing party unity and support from key states was key to her campaign success, but the absence of key figures has undoubtedly added to her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump’s Interaction with the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump’s support for the crypto industry is another important factor in his rising popularity. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early days, as the market developed, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign announced that it was accepting donations in a variety of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrates his openness to cryptocurrency, but also allows him to forge a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic step that not only expands Trump’s voter base, but also attracts young voters and technophiles who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters tend to have a strong sense of identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump is sending them a clear signal that he supports this burgeoning space and is willing to speak up politically for it.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that have further cemented his position in the crypto community. One of the most notable promises was the amnesty of the founder of a well-known cryptocurrency trading platform. This commitment not only won the goodwill of a large number of crypto supporters, but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry.

In addition, Trump also said that if he is re-elected, he will push for the inclusion of bitcoin in the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using bitcoin to solve part of the country’s debt problem. While these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in the mainstream financial community, they have received an enthusiastic response within the crypto community. Crypto proponents believe that these moves will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater opportunities for the industry to grow.

5. Political Donations from Cryptocurrency Companies in the 2024 Election

According to reports, nearly half of corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle came from crypto firms. These companies influence election results by supporting candidates who align with their own interests. The crypto industry’s support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric, but also in the form of financial assistance.

This corporate-level support has further cemented Trump’s position in the crypto community and related industries. Trump’s financial and propaganda dominance in the election has been strengthened as more crypto companies and individual investors have poured money into pro-Trump political action committees (PACs), which has directly contributed to his popularity in the prediction market.

Conclusion

Trump’s rise in popularity is the result of a combination of factors. Harris’s economic policies have sparked controversy, especially among centrist voters, who have struggled to gain support. The absence of key state politicians has exacerbated fears of division within the party, further eroding Harris’ approval ratings in key areas. And Trump’s supportive attitude towards the crypto industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. At the same time, huge political donations from crypto companies also provided strong support for Trump’s election.

Both Trump and Harris will face enormous challenges in the coming months. They need to constantly adjust their tactics to enlist the support of more voters, especially among voters in key swing states. For Trump, continuing to cement his position in the crypto industry and expanding his appeal to centrist voters will be key for him to stay ahead. Harris, on the other hand, will need to find a breakthrough to win back the trust of centrist voters, while strengthening party unity in the face of the upcoming election campaign.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the crypto market in the United States and around the world. For investors and market participants