Looking back at the geopolitical conflicts of the past three years, the price of Bitcoin has consistently followed a three-stage logic of "panic selling - Get Liquidated - risk aversion return:"

During the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $27,000, but then rebounded due to safe-haven demand for funds in the Middle East. In 2024, Trump's tariff policy triggered a crash, but institutions counter-trended by bottom-fishing at the $95,000 support level, pushing the price back to $100,000.
Short-term defense focuses on the support zone of 96,000 to 100,000 USD; if it breaks, risk control will be activated.
If the mid-term layout pulls back to $95,000 (the cost price for short-term holders), positions can be built in batches. Macro hedging should pay attention to the dollar index and Federal Reserve policies. A DXY drop below 90 could be a signal for the bull market to restart.
Has the belief in Bitcoin as "digital gold" collapsed?
This plunge has torn away the last layer of "cover" for Bitcoin—it has never truly become a safe-haven asset, but rather due to its high fluctuation, it has become a "barometer" of risk sentiment. Ironically, however, despite the undercurrents of funds in the Middle East, countries with capital controls like Iran and Turkey may still move assets through Bitcoin, forming price support.
Long-term narrative unchanged
The institutions adopting deepening, halving cycles, and the trend of fiat currency devaluation remain the underlying logic for Bitcoin's impact on reaching $200,000.
War will not kill Bitcoin, but it will accelerate market differentiation. The true winners are always those calm minds who "pick up chips in the midst of gunfire."