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Four Key Signals for the Start of Alt Season
Based on historical experience and current market dynamics, the next alt season must meet the following conditions:
Bitcoin's market cap share has fallen below 60%.
This is a key indicator of funds shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins. If the Bitcoin price enters a consolidation or slight correction phase, its market cap percentage may drop from the current 63% to below 60%, triggering the "alt season" index to break 75 points (currently only 31 points).
Macroeconomic liquidity improvement
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to start in the third quarter of 2025, and market liquidity will gradually loosen. Historical data shows that altcoin bull markets usually occur during periods of excessive liquidity, such as the massive infusion of funds in 2021.
Technical breakthroughs and compliance implementation
The Ethereum Cancun upgrade, the expansion of Solana's mobile payment ecosystem, and the implementation of Layer2's zkEVM 3.0 technology are likely to become catalysts for igniting market trends.
In addition, if the altcoin ETF is approved, it will attract institutional funds worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
Market sentiment shifts to FOMO
The current participation of retail investors is close to historical lows, and the market's frenzy needs to be stimulated through MEME coin speculation or phenomenon-level projects.