Meme weakness, AI relay

Written by: Joshua Deuk

Compilation: Vernacular Blockchain

Editor’s Note:

As Bitcoin breaks through $110,000 again, the market greed index continues to rise, especially with the enthusiasm for altcoin season reignited; however, the subsequent market fluctuations shatter the illusion once more.

Unlike the panic in many shanzhai markets, Bitcoin is fluctuating and approaching $110,000 again, while Ethereum is also starting to show a breakthrough trend. So, what super Alpha opportunities will there be next? Is MeMe still the super crypto track?

Mozaik Capital Trading Director Joshua Deuk on the current market is as follows:

This weekend, with more time to reflect, I would like to share some thoughts about the market.

I believe that the overall directional trend of the cryptocurrency market will not become apparent until after September. Given the macroeconomic headwinds, summer liquidity constraints, and quarter-end position adjustments, the real market dynamics will only begin when market participants return after the August holidays. From recent market activities, the rise of most altcoins has been driven by short squeezes. Traders are reflexively chasing momentum due to the previous rebound - but this time there are no real long-term holders. Most people have already been severely impacted by the market. As expected, the vast majority of tokens that saw sharp increases have subsequently experienced equally sharp declines.

Ethereum rebounded unexpectedly, with the hardest-hit sectors, such as AI and MeMe coins, leading the rally. On the other hand, tokens with practical use, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms have shown resilience – not only performing more robustly during declines, but also recovering faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a MeMe coin, its structure is completely different. From this, we can extract the following insights:

The demand for Bitcoin is real and persistent.

Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.

The capital nature of BTC now is completely different from previous cycles. This is why large-scale BTC liquidations are unlikely to occur unless triggered by macro events.

The internal differentiation of altcoins will intensify.

Ultimately, capital will flow back to altcoins—but it won’t be comprehensive. Only tokens with clear use cases and practical applications are likely to attract this influx of funds. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. The clarity of regulation, the growing adoption of decentralized finance, the deflationary structure, and the demand for staking together create a powerful flywheel effect. Moreover, due to ETH’s prolonged failure to meet expectations, it still has marginal buyers waiting in the over-the-counter market.

Tokens supported by venture capital carry structural risks.

Token unlocks will continue to exert pressure on price trends. In the case of insufficient liquidity, the ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside potential. This is why I believe that tokens with overvaluations listed on centralized exchanges are not a good choice for the future. Tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem, in particular, face ongoing selling pressure due to their validator reward structure that leads to this situation.

04MeMe has structural advantages

In this case, MeMe has structural advantages, with no risk capital unlocking, fair launch, and 100% based on attention. This is a purely speculative mechanism - just like in the first cycle, it worked.

But I think this phase is coming to an end.

The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump Coin marked the peak of MeMe Coin’s attention. Since then, interest in MeMe Coin has begun to wane. Even during the April rebound, SOL’s performance was not as good as ETH - if everyone was already holding SOL, who would be the marginal buyer when the momentum of MeMe Coin fades?

Some MeMe coins may still be doing well, especially those that have gone viral outside of crypto Twitter, such as on TikTok or Instagram, driven by charismatic figures like MURAD. These can still have asymmetric wealth effects. But the era of “Cute Dogs and Cat Coins” as an alpha is over. Only MeMe coins that have a strong story and a strong market perception – something that people can collectively believe – have real speculative value.

Ironically, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture-backed tokens have opened the door for fair launch Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.

Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on-chain. When there is information asymmetry, big opportunities always emerge. Once everyone is aware of something, it no longer has returns.

This is why I spend more time closely monitoring the on-chain market. The success of Keeta has ignited the desire to find the “next Keeta,” and capital has begun to chase similar fair launch altcoin narratives. Just like that Bonk guy who made over 10 figures by trading MeMe coins—attention guides capital.

05Next market trend

So, if meme coins are no longer the opportunity… what’s next?

My opinion: The combination of AI and cryptocurrency.

If you have followed my timeline, you would know that most of my operations during this cycle—after the early phases of SOL and venture capital-backed tokens—have been focused on MeMe coin and AI.

Just like the DeFi summer, most early AI projects failed after the hype. But truly practical projects are quietly being built in this bear market.

We have already seen some of these projects appear on the chain.

As the profits from MeMe coin dry up, attention will naturally turn to new narratives.

AI, with its clear practicality, is very suitable to become the next destination.

Many AI x Crypto projects are fairly launched, echoing the narrative of Keeta.

This is why I took the time to research and position myself in this field during the quiet weeks. There is no need to rush to establish a full position now—but I believe that if the market experiences a strong rise again, this field will hold the greatest asymmetrical opportunities. A review of the market situation and future trends has been conducted.