Analysts interpret the "stair-step" rise pattern of BTC, is 160,000 USD within reach?

Written by: BitpushNews

On Monday, the cryptocurrency market continued to show a slight rebound, with Bitcoin briefly reaching an intraday high of $107,068 before pulling back to around $102,105. According to data from CoinMarketCap, as of the time of writing, the trading price of Bitcoin is $105,850, with a 24-hour volatility of less than 1%, and a 24-hour trading volume increasing by 40% to $64.63 billion.

“Ten Thousand Yuan Tiered Increase” Model

Some market observers have pointed out that Bitcoin has shown an interesting “stair-step” pattern in its recent rise.

Analyst Trader Tardigrade found that the price of BTC shows a phased pattern of increase, with each upward wave approximately around $10,000, followed by a brief pause. He mentioned the movements from $75,000 to $85,000, then to $95,000, and recently to $105,000. After each jump, there is usually a relative calm horizontal consolidation lasting seven to ten days.

For traders, this pattern offers predictable opportunities to take profits or establish new positions. These consolidations can serve as new support levels, indicating the willingness of buyers to re-enter the market. If this pattern continues, the next logical target could be $115,000, which is approximately 11% higher than the current price.

Tardigrade believes that the significance of the $100,000 mark is self-evident. This round number is not only an important psychological barrier but also forms a strong technical support. It is worth noting that after a significant increase of 11% in early May, Bitcoin still maintained a slight increase of 0.5% last week. This “slow bull” characteristic is healthier compared to violent fluctuations and is also easier to sustain.

$160,000 target position

Looking further ahead, chart analyst CryptoCon has provided a more optimistic outlook through the “Golden Ratio Multiplier” model.

CryptoCon stated that the gold ratio multiplier model is one of the few technical indicators that accurately predicted the top of the Bitcoin cycle in April 2021.

According to the model’s analysis, in March 2024, the market has already touched the middle top of the cycle, which means that the market is likely to test the top again. Current models point to a Level 5 target of $160,000 and a sustained upward trend, which is quite similar to the 2015-2017 bull cycle – the current phase is equivalent to April 2017, on the eve of the main bull upswing. Historical experience has shown that this slow accumulation phase often indicates the possibility of an accelerated upward trend in the future.

It is worth noting that although this technical analysis has certain reference value, the target price of 160,000 USD is based on the calculations of a specific model, and the actual trend may be influenced by various factors. For ordinary investors, understanding this cyclical characteristic helps grasp market rhythm, but more importantly, it is essential to manage risks well.

Willy Woo: The compound annual growth rate of BTC will stabilize at 8%.

Analyst Willy Woo provides another perspective. He believes that Bitcoin has evolved from a highly volatile, explosive growth asset into a more mature financial tool. While many still view Bitcoin as a skyrocketing “magical unicorn,” Woo points out that the era of over 100% annual growth rates, such as in 2017, is essentially over. He marks 2020 as a key turning point when Bitcoin achieved “institutionalization,” as companies and sovereign entities began accumulating it.

As more institutional capital enters, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin naturally declines from three digits to around 30%-40%, continuing to trend moderate. Woo attributes this to the increasing maturity of Bitcoin and its growing role as a store of value. He emphasizes Bitcoin’s status as a global financial asset, pointing out that it “will continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium point.”

Looking further into the future, Woo predicts that Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate will eventually stabilize at a level consistent with broader economic trends, potentially around 8% per year (combining 5% long-term monetary expansion and 3% GDP growth). Although this growth rate may seem modest compared to earlier times, he remains confident in its long-term performance and summarizes: “Enjoy the journey before that (perhaps 15-20 years from now), because there are hardly any publicly investable products that can match Bitcoin’s performance over the long term, even if Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate continues to decline.”