Bitcoin has been sideways for two weeks, hiding secrets.
In the past two weeks, the crypto assets market has shown a clear differentiation pattern. Bitcoin has been oscillating between $103,000 and $107,000, while mainstream alts like Ethereum continue to weaken. Behind this seemingly calm market, there are actually undercurrents, and three key signals are worth investors’ close attention.
- Changes in the Macro Environment and Market Structure
This week’s intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials have become the market focus. Although expectations for a rate cut in September are growing, the pace of policy shift remains uncertain. It is noteworthy that Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining high levels amidst fluctuations in traditional financial markets. Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization share has risen to 64%, indicating a clear trend of funds gathering towards leading assets.
The technical aspect shows that Bitcoin has successfully built multiple support lines. The $93,000 - $98,000 range has accumulated a large number of short-term holders’ average costs, while the $81,000 - $85,000 range serves as the annual moving average support zone. This “stair-step” support structure is healthier and more stable compared to the market four months ago.
- The Key Turning Points of Ethereum
As the second largest crypto asset, Ethereum is facing a critical technical test. Its weekly chart barely holds above the 200-week moving average at $2450, but on the daily chart, it still needs to break through $2700 to confirm the return of a bull market. This price range has gathered a large number of historical trapped positions; investors who entered the market between $3000 and $3400 during 2021 have lowered their average cost to around $2700 after multiple rounds of averaging down, forming strong selling pressure.
On-chain data shows that Ethereum investors who have held for 3-6 months have just returned to profitability. If they can sustain a consolidation to digest the selling pressure at the current price level, it is expected to build momentum for a subsequent breakout. However, in the short term, Ethereum’s performance may still be weaker than Bitcoin.
- Market Sentiment and Capital Trends
The current market shows a typical “strong spot, weak derivatives” characteristic. Bitcoin spot continues to receive capital inflows, but the short selling power in the derivatives market is continuously increasing. Since breaking through $100,000, the cumulative net short position in the futures market has been expanding, reflecting a lack of confidence among short-term traders in continuing the breakout.
This emotional divergence is clearly reflected on social media: the price stagnation has led to a spread of anxiety, with a surge in the search volume for the keyword “crash.” However, historical experience shows that when market sentiment shifts from greed to hesitation, it is often a precursor to a change in trend. The three emotional lows from February to April this year have subsequently proven to be excellent buying points.
Four, key window period in the next three months
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has built a consolidation platform for 14 days above the $100,000 mark. There are no obvious trapped positions above this level, while there are multiple supports below, making the chip structure favorable for the bulls. If we refer to the previous two horizontal periods (7 days and 11 days), the probability of a breakout after this consolidation is relatively high.
Notable time nodes:
Late July: Traditional funds’ quarterly rebalancing window may catalyze a new market trend.
September Federal Reserve meeting: Expectations for a policy shift may trigger early positioning.
Q4: Historical statistics show that the Crypto Assets peak season.
Analysts generally believe that if the previous high of $107,000 is broken, it could quickly surge to the $120,000-$130,000 range. However, a phase of adjustment may occur in August and September, which could build momentum for the end-of-year market. For ordinary investors, the current strategy should avoid chasing highs and instead seize opportunities during pullbacks.
The market always moves forward amid skepticism. While most people are anxious about short-term fluctuations, real opportunities are brewing. Bitcoin has proven over six years that every major breakthrough is preceded by a sufficient turnover of chips. Perhaps this period of consolidation is just the starting point of a new bull market journey.