07:25
Bitunix Analyst: ADP Employment Disappoints and Capital Divergence Intensifies, Making BTC 93k the Key Short-Term Bull-Bear Watershed
According to BlockBeats, on December 4th, the latest data shows that the US ADP "small non-farm" employment in November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000, which is much weaker than market expectations, indicating that the labor market is cooling at a faster pace. This report serves as an important reference for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, and the weakening employment adds further uncertainty to a potential policy shift. After the data was released, safe-haven assets strengthened, gold prices rebounded to around $4,220, and the crypto market saw increased volatility within a broader range. On the macro level, the decline in employment mainly came from small and micro-sized enterprises, with companies having fewer than 50 employees cutting 120,000 jobs in a single month—the largest drop since March 2023—reflecting simultaneous pressures on end demand and the financing environment. Annual wage growth fell to 4.4%, indicating marginal easing of inflationary pressure. The interest rate futures market has now raised the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to nearly 90.
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