Don't forget that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing; Russia's two major oil and gas ports in the Baltic Sea have been bombed and paralyzed for a week.

[Text/Observer Network Ruan Jiaqing]

According to Reuters on April 1, the Finnish Border Guard responsible for monitoring shipping in the relevant sea areas stated that Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian Baltic ports have continued for over a week. As of this Wednesday, Russia’s two major oil shipping hubs in the region, the Primorsk port and the Ust-Luga port, have all but halted their oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation operations.

This attack, which began on March 22, has repeatedly ignited port facilities, with visible smoke in Finland. Since last Wednesday, both ports have suspended fuel loading and unloading operations. This week, the attacks continued, and on Tuesday, Ust-Luga port suffered its fifth attack within ten days.

Mikko Hirvi, head of the Finnish Border Guard’s maritime safety department, told Reuters: “Currently, only a very few oil tankers are departing from the Primorsk and Ust-Luga oil ports. We’re talking about individual ships.”

Under normal circumstances, in recent years, an average of 40 to 50 oil tankers per week have carried Russian crude oil and LNG through the Baltic Sea.

On March 27, after Ukraine attacked the Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast, satellite near-infrared images showed thick smoke rising from the port. Reuters

Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports are located in Russia’s northwestern Leningrad Oblast, about 80 kilometers apart, with one in the south and the other in the north. Primorsk is Russia’s core export terminal for Ural crude oil and high-quality diesel, handling over 1 million barrels of crude oil daily; Ust-Luga’s daily oil export volume is about 700k barrels.

Sources revealed that last year, Ust-Luga exported 32.9 million tons of oil products, while Primorsk exported 16.8 million tons during the same period.

In September last year, both ports were attacked by Ukrainian drones. At that time, fires broke out on ships and oil pumps at Primorsk, forcing shipment operations to halt, and multiple oil pumping stations at Ust-Luga were damaged.

A schematic map of Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports. BBC graphic

Ukraine launched a new round of attacks from the early hours of March 22 to 23. The Ukrainian Security Service claimed that the move aimed to reduce Russia’s foreign exchange income. Leningrad Oblast Governor Alexander Drozdenko reported that Russian air defense systems intercepted over 70 incoming drones that day. The attacks caused fires at multiple fuel tanks at Primorsk, and port workers were evacuated urgently.

The authorities did not specify the extent of operational impact at the time. According to energy industry insiders confirmed to Reuters, both ports have suspended crude oil and refined oil loading operations since last Wednesday, March 25.

Industry estimates suggest that, combined with the previously damaged “Friendship” oil pipeline, about 40% of Russia’s crude oil export capacity has been paralyzed as of this Wednesday, with a daily shutdown of approximately 2 million barrels. Since January 27, Russian oil has no longer been transported via the “Friendship” pipeline passing through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia.

“This shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the history of Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter,” the report states. It also notes that this is one of the largest strikes Ukraine has launched against Russian oil export facilities since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially increasing uncertainties in the global oil market amid Middle Eastern conflicts.

Currently, due to the impact of the Iran war, global oil trade faces unprecedented turmoil. International Brent crude oil prices have hit record monthly increases. Russia could have significantly increased oil revenue from this, but now, due to port shutdowns, it may miss out on profits.

Laura Solanko, senior advisor at the Finnish Central Bank and an expert on the Russian energy market, analyzed that at the beginning of this year, the price of Primorsk crude oil, excluding shipping costs, was $25 lower than the Brent benchmark. If the price difference remains unchanged, the current crude oil price in this region is about $70 to $75 per barrel. This means that just from Baltic oil shutdowns, Russia is losing about $70 to $75 million daily, not including higher-margin refined oil losses.

Bloomberg previously reported that from March 22 to 29, the weekly Russian seaborne crude oil exports plummeted by 1.75 million barrels per day to 2.32 million barrels per day. The weekly oil revenue loss exceeded $1 billion, with shipping capacity dropping to its lowest in over a year, and Baltic Sea oil shipping volumes hitting the lowest since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began.

Russian seaborne crude oil export volume. Bloomberg graphic

The day after the port shutdown, Nikolai Tokarev, president of the Russian pipeline transportation company, confirmed that Russia is attempting to reroute the damaged port’s oil capacity. However, he said, “Reallocating such a large volume in a short period is extremely difficult,” and the current rerouting efforts face significant challenges.

Tokarev did not specify whether the ports have ceased operations but stated, “We will do everything possible to complete all work as soon as possible.”

Analysts told Reuters that with the continued attacks on Russia’s three key western oil export nodes—Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and the Novorossiysk hub in the Black Sea—and the limited capacity of the “Friendship” pipeline, Russia is increasingly relying on Asian export routes. However, these routes are also nearing saturation.

It is reported that Russia’s oil supply to China via pipelines remains stable, including the Skovorotino–Mohe, Atasu–Alashankou routes, and the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO) via the Kozmino port. These three routes together transport about 1.9 million barrels of oil daily.

Additionally, Russia continues to load oil from two offshore fields on Sakhalin Island in the Far East, exporting about 250k barrels daily, and supplies 300k barrels per day to Belarusian refineries.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed that amid rising global oil prices, his allies hope Ukraine will reduce its attacks on Russia’s oil industry.

But he insisted he would only stop attacking Russian energy exports if Russia first ceases attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. He added that Ukraine “is willing to accept any form of ceasefire.”

Alexander Lord, an analyst at British intelligence firm Sybelline, told BBC, “Kyiv is likely trying to offset the unexpected profits currently enjoyed by Russian oil and gas exporters.”

However, Lord also said that the longer the Iran conflict drags on, “the more likely the U.S. is to pressure Ukraine to halt such targeted strikes, in line with its overall strategy to lower global oil prices.”

This article is an exclusive report by Observer Network and may not be reproduced without permission.