#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The second thing: the geopolitical crisis has been resolved, but your mind hasn't let go yet.
The US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement has been implemented, and crude oil prices crashed from $112, taking $42.7 million in shorts along with it. BTC surged over 4% in the short term. But war dividends are one-time gains; after this wave, where is the next catalyst? Is it a Federal Reserve rate cut, or a big move by Trump? No one knows.
The third thing: extreme fear, the biggest contrarian indicator.
The Fear & Greed Index is only 12—extreme fear. The MVRV Z-Score is 1.31, at a historical low valuation zone. It means every time it reaches this level, the main players are scaring you into selling. The 2022 bear market bottom was like this, and the 2025 bull market correction will also be like this.
On one side, institutions are frantically accumulating, halving dividends are still ongoing, and long-term coin holders are continuously increasing.
On the other side, inflation is rebounding, the Federal Reserve is hawkish, and geopolitical uncertainties are like the Sword of Damocles.
The key level is 72,600—this is the last watershed between bulls and bears.
If you're a short-term trader: 70,000 to 68