Shouchuang Futures: Export Expectations Boosted, Caustic Soda Futures Continue to Show Strength

Spot market, Shandong 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda weekly average of 651 yuan/ton, up 2.36 percentage points month-on-month.
In terms of supply, this week the average utilization rate of domestic sample enterprises with 100k tons or more of caustic soda production capacity is 85.3%, down 1.1% month-on-month.
The inventory at factory warehouses of nationwide fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200k tons or more is 534.2k tons (wet basis), down 3.86% month-on-month, up 19.15% year-on-year.
In March, domestic chlor-alkali plant maintenance plans are being implemented, which will reduce effective industry supply.
Additionally, overseas chlor-alkali plants are reducing their load, leading to decreased caustic soda supply, which may boost China’s caustic soda exports, and market expectations for destocking are strengthening.
On the demand side, recent ore prices for alumina raw materials are weak, and the industry’s loss situation may improve.
Downstream alumina operating rates increased by 0.2%, and non-aluminum downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the holiday.
Progress on new alumina projects in Guangxi is accelerating, with plans to start production successively in the near future, increasing demand for caustic soda.
Prices of high-concentration liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu have risen, supported by increased export inquiries, with enterprise offers continuously climbing, and market sentiment remains bullish.
In summary, increased maintenance at domestic and overseas plants further tightens supply expectations, combined with new downstream capacity bringing demand growth and increased export prospects, short-term caustic soda futures are expected to continue their strong trend.
Attention should be paid to overseas plant changes and the progress of new downstream capacity deployment.
(First Capital Futures)