Bitcoin Holds Critical Zone as Oil Rises Strongly – Has 90% of the Decline Been Priced In?

In the context of oil prices accelerating again due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, Bitcoin is still maintaining an important support zone. This indicates that the crypto market is showing relative stability despite pressures from the macro environment.

On-Chain Data Is in a Very Rare Zone Many important on-chain indicators for Bitcoin are currently hitting their lowest levels in history or in many years: Puell Multiple Z-Score: At its lowest in 10 years, comparable to major lows in 2018, 2020, and 2022. This often indicates miners are under significant “stress” and the market is approaching undervalued levels. SOPR Z-Score: Recording its lowest point ever, even lower than previous bear market lows. This reflects that most investors have accepted taking losses. MVRV Z-Score: Also at record lows, lower than all previous bear cycles. History shows that when MVRV falls into this zone, the market has usually priced in most of the risk. Could It Drop Further? In the short term, it’s possible the market will continue to fluctuate, even sweeping liquidity below previous lows to “shake out” weak-handed investors. However, based on on-chain data, most selling pressure seems to have been absorbed. If history repeats, then: 90% of the downside margin may have already been reflected in the price. The risk of further deep declines is no longer as significant as before. The market may be in the final accumulation phase of the down cycle. Conclusion Although short-term volatility remains, especially with oil prices surging due to Middle East instability, Bitcoin’s on-chain data shows a different picture: the market may have passed its most difficult phase. Like in previous cycles, extreme pessimism often creates long-term opportunities. The question is not whether there will be more fluctuations — but whether the market has fully priced in the bad news. And currently, the data suggests the answer could be: almost certainly.