Everbright Futures: Fundamentals and macro factors resonate, soda ash continues its weak downward trend

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-08T09:13:42+00:00

Before Tuesday morning trading, it was reported that U.S. President Trump told his aides that he would be willing to end U.S. military actions against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. In light of Trump's repeated TACO statements, all related markets today experienced adjustments, with prices generally declining. Among them, the fundamental outlook for soda ash remains broadly loose. After external disturbance factors weakened in pricing influence, the market saw an expanded downward movement today, with intraday declines exceeding 3%.Specifically, in terms of supply, some companies have recently resumed production after maintenance, with industry operating rates at 82.80%, a 1.26% increase compared to the previous day, and subsequent supply is expected to continue rising. Demand remains stable but slightly weak; downstream procurement efforts have slightly decreased, and with the continued decline in capacity for downstream photovoltaic glass and float glass in heavy alkali products, the rigid demand for soda ash has further weakened. After mid- and downstream inventory replenishment, market demand has been insufficient to absorb the supply, leading soda ash producers to weaken orders and begin stockpiling. This Monday, soda ash company inventories increased by 0.7% compared to last Thursday, and subsequent alkali factories still

K-LinePoet

2026-04-08 09:13:42

Before the Tuesday morning session, according to reports, U.S. President Trump told his aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, he is still willing to end U.S. military actions against Iran. With Trump TACO again, today’s 能化系 is expected to see a full adjustment, and prices generally move lower. Among them, the soda ash fundamentals continue to remain loose. After the degree of valuation of external disturbance factors weakens, the downside move on the intraday market expands further, with the largest intraday drop exceeding 3%.

Looking at it in detail, on the supply side, in recent days some companies have carried out maintenance and resumed production. The industry operating rate is 82.80%, up 1.26% month-over-month. Going forward, supply may continue to rise. On the demand side, performance remains flat and steady; downstream purchasing strength has slightly weakened. In addition, with continuous declines in capacity for photovoltaic glass and float glass at downstream users of heavy alkali, the level of soda ash rigid demand further weakens. After replenishment by the midstream and downstream sectors, the market’s demand has not been able to absorb the supply adequately, so soda ash companies’ orders weaken and they begin to accumulate inventory. As of Monday of this week, soda ash companies’ inventory increased by 0.7% compared with Thursday of last week. Going forward, alkali producers will still face relatively high pressure to reduce inventory. It is expected that in the short term, soda ash futures prices may maintain a broad, range-bound volatility trend. From a medium-term perspective, the key focus is whether changes in costs and export expectations can produce a tangible impact on the industrial chain. Also, attention should be paid to changes in the international situation for soda ash, fluctuations in global energy prices, and overall sentiment in the commodities market. (Everbright Futures)

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