Trump's final TACO: The intermediary relayed messages back and forth, multiple rounds of plan revisions within a day, and the Iranian top officials ultimately approved it. Behind the scenes, it was chaos.

The U.S.-Iran crisis, which nearly pushed the Middle East into a full-scale war, ultimately came to a temporary pause with a two-week ceasefire agreement. According to CCTV News, in an early-morning statement local time on the 8th, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it decided to accept a ceasefire proposal put forward by Pakistan, based on the recommendations of the Supreme Leader and with approval from the Supreme National Security Council.

A previous article by Wall Street News noted that it took only ten hours and twenty-six minutes for Trump’s dramatic reversal—from warning that “the entire civilization would perish” to “a two-week ceasefire.” But the diplomatic process behind it was far more chaotic than the public narrative. According to Axios, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt’s envoys repeatedly moved back and forth between the U.S. and Iran to convey proposals, and the draft was revised multiple times within a single day. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, ultimately gave the final approval in person, which is what allowed the agreement to take shape.

Before the ceasefire announcement landed, almost no one could predict how events would unfold. U.S. troops in the Middle East and officials at the Pentagon were still preparing, in the final hours of the negotiations, to carry out large-scale strikes against Iran’s infrastructure. Trump’s close allies and aides, one or two hours before he posted that he was accepting the ceasefire, still generally believed he would reject the agreement. In hindsight, a U.S. defense official candidly admitted: “We have no idea what will happen—it’s pure chaos.”

The ceasefire order temporarily stopped the situation from escalating further, but the differences were far from resolved. There remains a huge gap between the visions the two sides—U.S. and Iran—have for the final agreement, and the possibility of fighting reigniting is very real. Vice President Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation to attend the follow-up negotiations scheduled for this Friday in Pakistan, which will be the most consequential diplomatic assignment of his political career to date.

The plan was revised multiple times in a single day; envoys from three countries hurried around

On Monday morning, Trump attended an Easter celebration event at the White House. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff was reportedly “burning with anger,” according to media reports, and was on the phone back-to-back. A source directly familiar with the matter told the media that Witkoff informed intermediaries that the 10 a.m. counterproposal Iran had just submitted was “a disaster, a catastrophe.”

This remark kicked off a series of negotiation adjustments throughout the day described as “chaotic.” Pakistan’s envoys passed the latest draft back and forth between Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while Egypt and Turkey’s foreign ministers also actively took part, trying to bridge differences between the two sides. The three-party intermediaries appeared one after another, giving the whole process a highly fragmented character.

After a full day of back-and-forth consultations, the envoys overnight on Monday received the U.S. side’s approval for an updated two-week ceasefire proposal. At that point, the ball was in Mujtaba Khamenei’s court.

Khamenei personally made the call; the way the message was conveyed was highly covert

The Supreme Leader of Iran’s direct intervention was the core turning point in these negotiations. Citing media reports that referenced an Israeli official, a regional official, and a third person familiar with the matter, it was said that on Monday—during the period since the outbreak of the war—Khamenei for the first time instructed the negotiators to push in the direction of reaching an agreement. The two sources described this shift as “breakthrough progress.”

Because he faced threats of assassination from Israel, Khamenei’s communications were extremely covert; he relied mainly on people physically passing notes to communicate, meaning his involvement had to be advanced in a roundabout, time-consuming manner. On Monday and Tuesday, all major decisions had to be reviewed by Khamenei. “Without his green light, there would be no agreement,” the regional source said.

Foreign Minister Araghchi also played a key role throughout—not only leading the specific negotiations, but also working importantly to persuade senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to accept the agreement.

White House insiders were kept in the dark; the ceasefire hung in the balance until the last moment

Even by Tuesday, the situation remained murky. That day, Trump issued the most intimidating threat possible: “Tonight, a civilization will perish.” Some U.S. media reported that Iran had withdrawn from negotiations based on this. But according to Axios, citing people involved in the talks, the opposite was true—there was, in fact, some momentum at the time. Vance was then working by phone from Hungary, mainly liaising with Pakistan.

Around noon on Tuesday (U.S. Eastern Time), the sides broadly reached consensus on the two-week ceasefire plan. Three hours later, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on the X platform to announce the ceasefire terms and urged both sides to accept them. However, immediately afterward, Trump began receiving calls and text messages from hawkish allies and trusted insiders, urging him to reject the agreement.

The confusion surrounding the direction of Trump’s decision-making thus reached its peak. Several people who had spoken with Trump just one or two hours earlier still firmly believed he would not accept the ceasefire until he actually posted his decision. Before posting, Trump first called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to confirm that he would honor the ceasefire commitment; he then called Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff and Army General Asim Munir to formally finalize the agreement. Fifteen minutes after Trump posted, the U.S. military received the order to stand down from alert.

With the ceasefire in place, multiple uncertainties remain

After the agreement was reached, Araghchi immediately issued a statement saying Iran would honor the ceasefire and would open the Strait of Hormuz to ships that would “coordinate actions with Iran’s armed forces.” But the wording of the statement itself left suspense: it is still unclear to what extent Iran will allow shipping to resume normally.

Israel also had variables. A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received a U.S. assurance that he would insist, in negotiations, on Iran handing over nuclear materials, stopping uranium enrichment, and giving up threats posed by ballistic missiles. But the degree to which Netanyahu would stick to his ceasefire commitment also remains to be seen—Israeli officials have expressed deep concern that they were gradually losing control of the agenda.

The fundamental differences between the two sides’ visions for the final agreement have not yet been bridged, and the risk of hostilities restarting remains real. Whether the negotiations in Pakistan on Friday can turn this fragile ceasefire into a durable framework will be a critical moment to test the quality of this last-minute diplomatic contest.

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